Yep, must have been the STRONGER DOLLAR today! Must have been some buying anticipating the Commitment of Traders data coming out after the close. Most of the action today was among the small specs and locals. Volume today was neutral. Fundamentally, the market is in need of fresh news to fortify the advance. COT DATA: Funds holding net long positions: 6,300, an increase of 7,484 lots, while small specs are net long 10,564 lots, a decline of 3,175. Commercials are net short with 16,864 lots. Conclusion: Fund are neither as long as had been thought and commercials are not as short as expected.
Waggie..... perhaps you can answer something for me.... The COT data is 10 days old by the time we get it ....... is it not ? It always seemed to me that it was too late to be of any major importance. However I always have this feeling that I'm really missing some important point here.
Look at coffee on the monthly charts and add an RSI or MACD. We are showing a bullish divergence. The last time we saw a bullish divergence, Coffee took off like a rocket ship. Furthermore, once people start yapping about how there is tremendous oversupply in a commodity, like coffee, it usually means that complacency has hit big time, and the commodity has bottomed. The coffee train is at the station. ALL ABOARD!!! Toot toot.
You certainly need the Commercials to join along in the party, and they aren't going to stop their producer selling unless they see a fundamental reason to do so.
The commercials will catch on. I have learned to look at COT data for the overall trend in commodities, but my rule is that whenever people start talking about abundant oversupplies, the commodity is going to take off. This time around, I think Coffee can hit about $5-$8.
Waggie, you got bearish in coffee, and it ripped. Look, up to 74.80 today. VIVA LA Coffee bull market!!!!!!!
Latest Barron's article has Marc Faber talking bout how bullish he is on coffee, and all the other softs, like sugar and orange juice. I've been long since 64 cent plus levels, suffered mightily when it went down to 61 cents. Still long. Here in Singapore, coffee culture has really taken off. People just like to hang out at coffee bars and chit chat. I imagine the same trend being replicated in 100 cities all across China and India over the next 10 years. That gets me excited. Looking to pyramind and add to my position on any correction. Cheers all