You can believe what you wish to believe ( and somewhere in your posts I hear a tremendous EGO crying out to be recognized ) but I hate to tell you that a weaker US Dollar is not the end all for commodities. For example, you talk about a weaker US Dollar having a huge impact on Natural Gas and being a catalyst for the rally in Natural Gas . . . can you please explain this? I have always understood Natural Gas to be effected by working gas in underground storage (supply), net imports from Canada (supply), and industrial and commercial demand based on economic activity, and residential demand which largely revolves around WEATHER. Again, given your thinking can you please tell me how a weaker US Dollar has helped Natural Gas rally as it has?
I would guess he means weaker dollar = higher oil prices = higher heating oil = higher prices of substitutes (nat gas). No clue how much NG is imported, that would make a difference as well. But I'd agree that it's 90% supply + weather rather than fx.
... just eyeballing the coffee vs dollar charts from 1984 to 2003, I would hazard to guess that if anything, the correlation is positive!
explode 2 X in the mid 80's to 90's made some option traders very rich on the floor not me ... sigh , just was an observer ....
Waggie, when natural gas had its huge move recently, all of the news coming out was saying that supplies were huge, and that was WAY BEARISH for Natural Gas. But what did NG do??? RIPPED HUGE!!!! UP UP and AWAY!!! NG did exactly the opposite of what your fundamentals would say. This move was linked the the USD. They tried to blame it on cold weather, but we were ripping up before the cold weather hit.
Please show me that Natural Gas inventories were HUGE, before the rally . . . I believe you are totally mistaken on this.
Screw Coffee!!! DDN is breaking out for like the 50th time again today. But seriously, if there was a mini, I'd own some. I really like the internals of that market and I like the supply/demand picture longer term. Probably best way to play it is buying the countries that grow it Vietnam/Brazil
Prae: There are mini coffee futures. You can long on those. Waggie: I'm not allowed to show me data or I can get into some trouble with my data provider. If you can find the expected and actual numbers for the natural gas reports from about 11/25/20003 to 12/10/2003, that is all you need.