Im not seeing a huge technical basis for this- http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...=Y&org=stk&sym=KCH8&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv Quarterly momentum may show it, could you elaborate? Even better, a chart
Thanks B1 Im seeing a fourth major peak on that monthly, and some bearish divergence, on different timeframes-but theres still a lot of momentum there. Havent had my technicals on commod charts for a while, but the weekly turn was quite obvious, on your charts there. Very weak price action for the last week or so though.
Acronym I agree with you here. Im short march at 134.25. Huge coffee crop on its way. Vietnam just got done harvesting a great crop. Brazil continues to get nice rains for the budding trees. Exports this week slowed. This past weeks price action like you said is not very impressive imo. 135 poses as good resistance and will be super tough to break through. A close below 133 sets us up for 129. If we can get through that we are headed to 124 (my long term target before we move higher).
Well, B1 knows what he's doing, thats for sure. Never ceases to amaze me, in coffee and cocoa, those sudden upward blasts, petering out and plummeting on weak abc patterns, happens so often. How many markets have the serious "risk" to the upside?(jmo) It is weak price action, but low atr /vol too- technical strategy, the only sensible entry now would be either run a wide oco bracket, (this is flat as a tack for coffee) hoping to pick up the true weekly direction, or look to fade the next obvious breakout, maybe stop and reverse as well. Work's most of the time..... Charting coffee is a mongrel, that's what makes it fun Good analysis YT, i only mention the previous ideas because the volatility is suspiciously low, not coffee's natural habitat. Reminds me, i got a bag of beans and no grinder, hammer and a tea towel just doesnt cut it. Hmmm.
Hi Acronym: quick question from a newbie... What's a ABC pattern? If this is discussed in a book or web site, can you give me the title? Thanks and happy holiday. B
Thats actually tougher than it sounds, everyone interpret's stuff differently. It's normally used in "swing" trading, where, you take the definable start of a move, call it A, name a retracement that does NOT take out the original support B-an abc is normally a continuation, the general approach is to find good value in the B down move, for the expected C wave / move, going in the original direction of A. Generally, one might use an "on stop" order, and its best end of day as a rule, i gather many use it ok intraday. So its not just a "breakout" approach, entering on the strength of a previous high, as such, most trend following methods rely on some variety of it. The nomenclature is possibly derived from elliot wave theory, but who knows these days. It's discussed everywhere, just dont pay money for it, it's standard stuff, and easy to learn-people tend to diss it, but they forget it's intended to be used where more than a few time frames are in the same direction, preferably as many as you can jam into your computer/brain. Ok, that was the worst explanation i've ever heard, but there it is. Now, just for fun, lets examine an instance where "swing trading" , on an end of day basis, could burn you bad, even following a basic swing system; http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix= See the area, between roughly the 6th of September, and about the 12th of oct? THAT, is a classic ABC up pattern, and the kind of thing i was referring to in coffee or cocoa. If you have good historical charts, there's heaps of these sort of moves, i dont know why. It appears, the caffeine did pick up, next trading day-are they that determined to take out weak longs? Yikes.
I'm with Buy1Sell2 on this. The price could be above 200 in a year and a half. Unlike all of those price spikes above 200 on a 40 year chart, this move has both supply and demand factors in its favor. Those previous spikes were primarily due to frosts/weather related. Plus right now inventories at 30 year lows. Then again, I've lost more money than I've made in coffee over the years, so who really knows.