Front month is trading off now, just gone below 70. Other months are all limit up, but they have smaller limits. Need to watch this carefully. If it continues selling off, then at some point the buyers at limit up are probably going to get stopped out in a bit of a selling panic. That might be a sweet spot to enter, rather than jumping in now. I would wait for a capitulation, or for the market to stabilise for the first hour or so and then turn back up towards the highs.
If OJ capitulates the 1st day after a Cat 5 hurricane decimating the groves, this would be a classic example of good news /bad action. I would NEVER go long OJ again!Sorta like when Iraq invaded Kuwait, the fields are buring and gold only up a couple of $.
Yeah - i mean an intraday capitulation on a tick chart, not on a daily timeframe. I.e. if it pukes a couple of points in a few minutes, then rebounds immediately, then you have a close stop and if the market closes below that point by more than a few ticks then you are highly likely to be wrong. I don't mean buy if it just continues going down all day - if that happens, then I agree, short the hell out of it!
But I guess the real lesson here, and the real money, was in recognizing that OJ was cheap and their were two hurricanes sitting right off the coast. Looks like another woulda, shoulda, coulda for my file.
More fun in OJ with another hurricane about to strike Florida. Is anyone still long here? Yesterday's reversal made me a bit nervous. I have a stop below the recent consolidation lows (around 73 in the November contract), in case the hurricane misses and the contract goes limit down, but if that doesn't hit them I'm hanging on and to see how far this market can go.
Yes, I am still long on FOJ and will most likely keep my position for quite a long time as I believe the price of FOJ has bottemed out. We´ll see! If the hurricane does not do any harm to the crops I think we´ll be in for one or two extremely heavy downward days. Whatever, good luck to the people who live in the Florida region. CCLSC
In the past few months, you've just seen a case study in how markets really work. People always view markets by looking backward. Extrapolating past news into the future. OJ was down, low carb was big, no one could possibly see any good news on the horizon. And then.....oh.......well what do you know, two hurricanes!! Just like that. Never look in the rear view mirror with markets. If you move away from the myopia plaguing everyone else, boom, you've just found the secret to making money. I need to start investing in an advanced weather reading system. Able to forecast hurricanes months before everyone else
Good post jb. Just another example of black swan events. Who would have thought a perfect storm would be brewing for the OJ shorts3 months ago ! Historical low options volatility, hist low OJ prices, low carb craze waning, 2 Cat 4-cat 5 hurricanes hitting FL in 2.5 weeks apart!
Hi, Where do you expect the futures to open tomorrow? Steady or sharply higher compared to friday´s close? CCLSC