Yep, cool movie. âWell it sounds to me like you guys are a couple of bookies.â "Buy low, sell high. Fear.....that's the other guys problem" Good advice
I've put on a moderate coffee position now - some around 78-79, the rest around 76. I am not going to get faked out with a stop loss, but if it makes a sustained move below 68-69 for more than a week or so, I'll reassess my position. OJ finally has become interesting. After some steady accumulation around the 57 level (Sep 04 future), which provided a serious floor under the market, it has now started rallying and has broken above 60. I have started buying a small position in response to this sign of underlying demand. However, I anticipate we will get pullbacks, so I will be looking to add on those, rather than chase the market up. It is rare at the very beginning of a bull market for prices to just ramp up with no opportunity to get on board. Usually you get plenty of backing and filling. However, with us still only $5 above the lows, and well below the average historical price, this is IMO a great long-term buying opportunity. The bearish sentiment just adds to the picture. Sugar has also been interesting of late. Whilst volatile, the market has shrugged off reversal days such as 2nd and 18th June, and is only just below 12 month highs. I think this market remains interesting, but it is a real tug of war at the moment, so I would be a bit more careful than in coffee or OJ. Overall, I think a basket of these 3 commodities will be worth considerably more in the next 1-2 years.
OJ Broke out 10%. I'm looking for a basing out in OJ for the next few months. I believe it may take some time for a nice OJ base to be built. Then I'll look for longs on a big retracement back to the downside. Coffee is a little tricky in here, but I believe that a stop-market to buy at those weekly highs could be a nice trade. What do you guys think about that?
Seems to me the low-carb fad is fading. Several substantial marketing efforts undertaken by the fairly deep-pocketed Florida Growers Assoc. are now launched, and the chart says this below cost product might get some traction now. Anybody else seeing a bottom in this area?
People keep asking me which coffee stock to own. I have said DDRX over and over again. CHECK THAT BABY OUT..Starting to rip up.
Congrats on that, as I recall you saying it was a good proxy on coffee a long time back. Is anyone here selling OJ puts yet? A bit ballsy yet I suppose with the trend, but it seems as if we are close. Are there any stocks well exposed to an increase in the price of juice which someone here knows of? Again, nice on the Gloria Jean's. Good call, wish I'd done it.
I would'nt sell oj puts unless Iv are terribly high. There are 3 locals in that pit offeason and maybe 10 during winter season. They are going to rake you over the coals coming and going due to illiquidty. Best to put on limited risk spreads as a package so spreads won't be too bg. Good luck.nice contract to trade though very trendy and small enough for retail specs.
Thanks for the reply on the oj options. I may just wait for a pullback and start looking at the straight contracts for a long. Coffee is backing nicely in here. Might be a reasonable place to add for a long term futures play down here around .70 or so. Frankly I'd rather hold any savings these days in coffee, oj, and silver at these prices than in dollars so some of this isn't even purely upside speculative.
Bro59 try this. watch the skew of oj calls when they flatten and when iv is reasonably low, buy call backspreads. OJ notoriety is its huge moves both up /down. It rarely "stair steps" 3 steps up/2 down-more like 8 up/1 down or vice versa. Watch technical ppoints and put your backspread there. Read Stock Mkt wizards when they interviewed this bender guy u might like what he says..