I agree with the comments about OJ in a classic psychological bottoming process because OJ farmers are in a panic. HOWEVER, prices can become way more irrational than traders are willing to think. OJ prices can still tumble a lot more. I'm looking for OJ to form a basing out pattern in here, and then I will wait for the first leg up. Then I will hit the retracement to the downside and go long big time. Another point of note on OJ prices...INFLATION ADJUSTED, IT HAS NEVER BEEN CHEAPER THAN RIGHT NOW!!!.
sugar traded at the nybot is primarily world sugar #11 which is cane and beet. Primary producers are EU, Brazil US, Cuba. HFCSyrup is not sugar but is in fact an alternative to it which gives sugar a natural substitue. Interesting sidenot is that sugar can be made into ethanol which might play big in the next 10 years.
Hey GAtrader, I plan to ride my bicycle around when Gasoline hits $5-$8 per gallon. What do you think about Natural Gas for public sector cars?
watch out for the duke boys (winthorpe and mortimer) cornering the frozen OJ market!! word on the street is they got the crop report early
wots the coffee-oj spread looking like? my broker tells me this aint a proper spread! bollox i said. u have 1 or other 4 breakfast, so there is a substitutional relationship - like wheat and corn. bitch hung up the phone.
Coffee is pulling back a bit here after its big runup. I think 78.50 is a reasonble spot to buy if you aren't in already, being roughly a 50% pullback from the highs, although it is possible that a move down below 80 will trigger stops and cause heavier selling, potentially taking it down to 75-ish. I'm looking to get moderately long around 78.50, with reserve buying power to add if it comes back to around 75. This is potentially a long-term play, so I would use pretty wide stops, probably below 69 cents. This restricts the potential position size, but I don't want to get faked out when I think the long-term potential is so good. Sugar has also pulled back quite a bit. However, it has made a worrying three consecutive tops around 7.30, failing each time to power through. As a result, I would want to wait for a conclusive breakout before getting long. Sugar could easily go down to 6.25 support level, and even blow through this and go below 6 on stop-loss selling. I would be interested in a move below 6 cents, but at current levels it is just too unclear IMO. OJ has failed yet again to mount a decent rally. Whilst I think it is fundamentally very cheap, the market is not rewarding the bulls at all. There seems to be strong support and accumulation around 54-55, so you can go long here with a small stop and limited risk, however I would again prefer to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows before committing. A good model for playing these markets IMO is silver and copper from last year. I was bullish fundamentally quite a bit before they finally broke out, and it was very easy to get chopped up and stopped out of longs during that period. Instead, waiting for a break to new 6 highs, then buying reasonable pullbacks or volatility breakouts proved a much easier way to play the move. One potential solution is to accumulate a small position on a "buy and hold" basis, with no stops, just using the small position size as your risk control. This makes it easier to commit to the market if and when it starts running ahead, and gives you a nice initial profit in that case. Usually I find that buying small positions in fundamentally cheap markets works out well, however you need to be patient and comfortable with the risk. I guess this is the Jim Rogers approach - have conviction on the fundamentals, then just get in when the market is too cheap and too bearish, and forget tech analysis. Perhaps combining the two is the best way to play it.
I am waiting for a double bottom or a few weeks of consolidation in OJ. Then leg into some long term cheap, slightly otm calls. While I agree and think that OJ is fudamentally very cheap, news keeps harping no demand/over supply - then theres the carb craze, not to mention that the commercials are still heavily short. Sure would be nice to be long on a major squeeze. I've not traded OJ yet, but it looks like liquidity might be a concern. I am currently long Oct. Sugar 700 Puts from the last pop. My entry wasn't the greatest, but not too bad. I entered at 7.49, got filled on my puts at 26 points and was looking to sell 3/4 of them at about 50 - 60 points - alas, we bounced before my target price of 690-700. I plan to add if we get back to the 750-760 neighborhood and will trade around my position if we continue higher. Live cattle! I had problems getting filled on Puts when it was at 9000 so either that trade has come and gone for me or I will look for an entry to short the Oct. Live Cattle around 8800 as that would seem an excellent place for the completion of a possible H&S formation. Again, I will leg in with some cheap OTM puts. I am watching the mini silver, 5500ish seems like a pretty safe support but is more than likely loaded with stops. 6000ish probably loaded with stops as well. I am leaning to the long side here but think there could be a nice short term move either way should either of those targets get hit. The last few days, I have placed limit orders to go long @ 6100 and short @ 5400, using your One potential solution is to accumulate a small position on a "buy and hold" basis, with no stops, just using the small position size as your risk control. Beans need to do something here. I am watching the Aug. Beans to see which way it breaks out of this little wedge - it might head for that gap. If it does and that gap holds, I will leg back into the 7400 puts, possibly trying for an entry of around 8 points or so. The last plunge, the 7400 puts went from 2.5 points to 30 points and are nice and liquid. Just some thoughts
Nice 50 minute interview with Rogers on June 5th 2004: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Rogers.html He lays out his bullish call on commodities quite nicely. He expects commodities in general to continue in their bull market for the next 10-18 years! In terms of OJ, Coffee and Sugar, I'm waiting a bit longer. I wouldn't put in stop losses, it'd be too easy to get shaken out of the trade. Conviction in the fundamentals is key.