Coffee is on a come back. I think that we are forming a breakout. We had a nice pullback right to where I had expected Reference this thread when we were talking about Coffee and OJ a while back: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=28339&perpage=6&pagenumber=5 I'm on the verge of no longer trading stock index futures and primarily concentrating on coffee. I just have to find my big balls so that I can pull off such a move as it would be a major life transition, and it would be quite a change from the electronic markets that I am used to. Hey Blue, what happened to OJ? I'm looking at round number support at perhaps 50 cents. What do you think about that?
I found a coffee stock with the ticker "DDRX" They are coffee producers so I think that the stock might take off if coffee really rips up.
IMHO if coffee takes off huge, SBUX and other coffee houses might suffer since they don't have as much elasticty as non-niche restaurants. It is far easier for the diner to raise coffee prices from 1.2 to 1.40 but imagine a latte grande above $5?
Yeah, I know..I think SBUX will go down the tubes if coffee takes off huge. But that doesn not answer his question. His question was which coffee stocks would take off. Since DDRX is a coffee producer, the stock might really surge. Look at a monthly chart on DDRX and coffee. The charts are very similar.
There was a great article in the LA Times recently about "the death of Florida orange groves." Because of Atkins and competition from Brazil, the Florida OJ market is on the verge of a meltdown. Literally the worst its been in decades. Everyone in the world wants to get OUT of the OJ business. Hmmmmmmm. Now what would the astute investor be doing hearing news like this. Everyone is bearish and everyone wants to get out. This is classic bottoming out news. If prices continue to drop, OJ produces will go out of business and no Florida politician will let that happen. We're much closer to a bottom than a top.
jb.. I agree w/ you, if things get really bad those oj constituents will make a big stink in DC and lo and behold, Oj wil be part of the aid packages US sends to N Korea, africa and school lunch programs,etc. They should talk to the sugar lobby. World sugar is 6 cents but the sugar farmers get 24 cents/lb. I would'nt short OJ very bad RR.
Interesting. Coffee does like look it's about to break out. I wouldnt mind going long some coffee futures but seems like doing it through stocks is easier. Coffee mania is back with all the lates, expressos and new drinks. Expresso brewing uses up more coffee than American style. Might be a set up for higher prices. The OJ looks like it's gonna just sell off even more. But sugar is interesting. Does that include all the sugar sweeteners like fructose, corn syrup, lactose, e.g.? I know that consumption of sugar has been on an uptrend forever.
fla is also fighting to keep a tariff in place, and brazil, with its cheaper labor, absence of environmental overhead, and probably a subsidizing gov't, is putting the *squeeze* on the fla citrus -- though fla citrus is an excellent product. it would stand to reason that higher interest rates would force the marginal producers to sell into the waiting hands of real estate developers -- there has been a lot of consolidation of the groves as it is. Interestingly, some of the largest citrus operations here are foreign owned. Low prices forcing decrease in production would ultimately lead to higher prices, obviously. I agree about the softs charts -- long term some of them look huge -- even as defacto currency plays.