I only have a small knowledge of the cocoa market, but it would appear to be made up the big buyers, Nestle etc and hundreds of thousands of cocoa farmers, plus of course speculators. If supply demand get out of whack, then it is feasible for a large speculator/hedge fund(s) to force the market to correct itself, either up or down. I am continuing to hold long positions, but often as a marker, that is built up. UK Cocoa is what I am currently trading. I would like to know if the US has more liquidity. I guess the question is what market should I use to trade cocoa in the US. I have just added IB as my broker.
Asia demand will grow, of course it's coming from the youth, imo, not the one's asking "why the women speak..." But what's driving price now is supply, i would reckon. As far as market, London not as liquid as NY (ICE) and you also have to account for currency, but with recent weakness in GBP, your getting a good push from there too. I would recommend NY, and IB is a decent broker for the elec. ICE contracts, but they offer no options, and for my own comfort I would prefer to have that option at least in case of emergency. (IB does have the London options though) Also, it looks to me like at least 2400 is a comin'. Good luck.