News on crops as of 11/22/07 http://www.thenational.com.pg/112207/Nation 9.htm Exports by country: http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/sitc3-3d/ep072.htm FYI: Papua New Gunea produces 1.46% of world total as per the International Cocoa Organization 2007 Trends document: http://www.icco.org/Attachment.aspx?Id=dnn43755 Above is a 43 page PDF containing a lot of 2007 cocoa fundamentals.
Am i missing something, or do the first two links mean very little? About half of the top exporters there, may export cocoa, but im doubting they produce much, are they net importers? Data seems a bit old, and surely even if PNG failed completely, that couldnt make a vast difference, at such a low proportion of production? I dont like this chart at the moment, march isnt much better, its been trying to make a solid base, but..... http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
Nope, you didn't miss anything. Yes, PNG is a low producer but the recent news article came up in my searches so I thought I'd share it nevertheless. The ICO links were posted so that people could see what percentage of total world production PNG produces; placing the news item into a more appropriate context. All in all, not a significant news item but I just wanted to share the data. Sometimes ET'ers like knowing fundamental data and after sifting through a lot of web hype and academic fluff, the ICO stats can be useful as 'background music." The statistical reports by ICO, although a tad dated are the most recent ones available and can provide guidance to the longer-term trader. Plus, their reports were BURIED in ICO's web site. but you're correct, the news item is not an earth-shattering development. b
Oh ok, just wondering, its all good! March, if it is looking for a base, 1800 is obvious, but technically, this could be interpreted as a bullish or bearish pattern-decreasing wedge's, march marginally more bullish, but theres nothing much in those price bars (or momentum) to support any directional view, imo. Even a breakout trade seems to obvious, which is why i dislike these kind of charts. You may have noticed, my technical perspective is incredibly usefull Were i a gambling man, which im not, i'd look to sell, and reverse long somewhere near 1800, or buy, and look to sell around the 2000/2100 mark. Odds /evens, but i would bet this "pattern" will break soon.
Sure did break. Since when does "marginally more bullish" not represent an obvious directional bias? Just goes to show, obvious is good. The breakout was obvious, and bias was obvious-why not go with it.
i have been long cocoa over 12 months. It hasn't been that profitable as i have tried to build up positions, only to have to reduce them. This is not a smooth uptrend. I have a number of reasons for being long, but the off beat reason was that I watched a tv program on a clinic for obese young Chinese. I always thought of Chinese as slim. Anyway at the clinic it was not boot camp, the teenagers were pampered and massaged and then days/weeks later put back on the bus, looking much the same as when they came.. ie fat. It was a signal of money arriving and changing their eating habits, at least for the rich. Top of the luxury food tree, is chocolate.
Ouch, bloody hell. Not a smooth uptrend is an understatement, http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...=Y&org=stk&sym=CCH8&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv Regarding what your saying, i saw this years ago-3-4-5 years ago-a case for overwhelming bullishness in coffee and cocoa, due to the presumtion chinese and other asian markets would quickly take it up, with higher incomes and living standards. Massive market-but presumed demand. Despite the fact, they have been inveterate tea drinkers for hundreds of years, seem's that part was ignored, japanese just dont eat heaps of chocolate, nor do most asian countries crave coffee-i recall watching some "attempted" coffee advertisements, when they were trying to sell this stuff. Fell flat on its face, sure, consumers saw the add's, but didnt get them, didnt "get" that coffee makes people sit around and talk about stuff, and why the hell were women speaking without men around? And who allowed them to speak? It was that bad, terrible culture conflict. Maybe your onto something though, despite culture conflicts, everything is in a bull market (the things that count at least) , so who is anyone to say.
yes, i have made a leap in assuming there will be demand for chocolate. I was interested that the Japanese are not great chocolate eaters. Anacdotal evidence suggests the Vietnamese are buying chocolate, maybe that's the French influence. This cocoa market, even if it is dominated by a few, will still have to bend to the market.
"why the hell were women speaking without men around? And who allowed them to speak" 1) What country was this please. 2) Please advise of any direct non stop flights. Those were the days............................
I was just going on what i thought, and read years ago, and a presumption of aquired taste-you still dont see western sushi bars filled with people after "authentic" asian cuisine of squid guts or fish entrails in a main course soup, but your right, these things are taking off. The uptake has been slower than nestle, cadbury and the respective multinationals expected, but it is occurring, but im talking about a time frame of a decade or so-maybe now, you could be on the money, no doubt, i am simply a charting guy. Your last paragraph is telling though-if the market is dominated by a few, are they not then, the market?