I actually like that a weather analysis would help you to trade these markets. Obviously hoping that these heat waves are just part of a cycle and we won't be facing extinction. Looking at other futures where a fundamental analysis is so disconnected from the actual market, seeing markets that can be analysed within a range is kind of a relief. We might even be able to call ourselves traders!
From a purely technical standpoint, I'd be eyeing the 3600-3800 area. If price does turn around, it's likely to be from that area. But, I don't see anything bearish yet.
%% US Apples main harvest , generally,is SEPT season \ that's why we see so many price downtrends then. But in mid south\ JULy + Aug is Macintosh red ripe apple drop. barchart.com has it a 100% buy[all time frames] ; but its also showing a monthly + weekly top.[little umbrella on weekly + monthly means top] NOT in that, but i would not want to short any super uptrend like that, based on technicals. Strange, stocks [SPY,S&P 5oo] tend to drop in SEPT also.Some apples drop in JUN\JUL. Thanks .
%% EVEN with a barchart.com ''top'' signal on monthly, weekly + daily charts\ intraday 60 minutes, not going down much. Its still a 100% buy on all time frames even with the top signal . I all ways weight technicals more , myself; but the cash metals dealer cares NOT about my don channels or ma.LOL. Funds + fundamentals win in the end. MY JUN+ JulY mac red apple drop illustration can apply; but some commercials put them in refrigerator / + sell so as not to disturb price uptrend. For downtrends i like XOM sector which is actually a bit down JAN-JUL
%% WORST?? The worst for me would be try try to make consistant profits off smaller counter-trends ; like a good[edit maintrend] trend myself. Congrats on your doWntics call; barchart.com still has it a 96% buy/100% buy medium /100%buy long term. {Maybe should not note this, even though i'm fairly sure its true. Larry ''mint'' Hite said,i noticed he had almost every book on power in his library. One of the biggest coffee traders took me to a dinner/ feast, and 5 times asked me Larry, how do you trade coffee, I know where all the boats are, I know all the ministers....?? Larry told him, I dont even drink coffee,LOL I trade risk. Wow that whale trader lost $100 million, Larry said ,looks like he did not get the risk message. Jack Schwager book}
Not calling a top here. Just looking for a decent short signal on a commodity near its ATH. Some would say the less they know about something. The better it is. Trading risk without bias is being focused on what matters. Without conviction nor predefined expectations. Knowing deeply about something doesn’t always provide an edge. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I’ll be forever trading the tape. Each one his own approach. Anyway … If some of you guys want to trade fundamentals, Then go for it but don’t forget: Only Price Pays. News failure would be my fundamental catalyst. Market going up / down on bad / good news
%% Looks like you made a good [small] counter-trend call; actually the barchart.com little umbrella signal on a temporary top[chart] can help, but its still rated 100% buy, long + medium term.[80% buy short term] Funds + fundamentals win in the end. [But here is one of the main ways i liked to read charts; that whole super trend/ is full of many weekly temporary tops[countertrends] LOL Good points on price pays