Cocoa futures

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by schizo, Jan 19, 2024.

  1. I wonder how many widows NG has created over the last year trying to catch that falling knife?
     
    #31     Feb 17, 2024
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    NG creates widows because for some reason people like to bank their wealth on a low-volatility idea about NG. This makes zero sense to me, considering how on-demand energy sources are. Especially NG.

    It is used for heating, cooling, and most importantly, electricity generation. It is not only a primary commodity for demand, it is also a BYPRODUCT of oil drilling. Yes, there are NG-only wells, but most NG comes from CL wells.

    The energy complex is nutty. It all must culminate somewhere, and NG is it.
     
    #32     Feb 17, 2024
    long and TrailerParkTed like this.
  3. schizo

    schizo

    Been wrong once, been wrong twice, but ya can't go wrong thrice!

    Happy trading, y'all, and stop eating so much of that chocolatey goo.

    upload_2024-2-28_12-33-38.png
     
    #33     Feb 28, 2024
  4. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    This didn't age well...LOL. Actually, this cocoa situation is exceptional. Some producers in Ivory Coast or Ghana won't be able to ship the amounts contracted, the deficit is growing and we are perhaps at the beginning of a multi year run of really low inventories.
     
    #34     Feb 29, 2024
  5. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

  6. schizo

    schizo

    Only time I've seen something similar was with Palladium (rising 201%), which in fact rose twice as much as Cocoa (110%). But look what happened afterwards (Gulp!)

    upload_2024-3-19_14-24-7.png

    upload_2024-3-19_14-24-57.png

    Eventually, what goes up comes down. Nothing goes up forever!

    upload_2024-3-19_14-42-14.png
     
    #36     Mar 19, 2024
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    Exactly that last chart. Whoopsie daisy for the longs!

    There's a video analogy for this of course. (Did you miss me?)



    The irony is evident in combining your chart with the puppet's singing in that one bit, considering it was from pets.com. Good Lord, haha.

    But of course, it is not a universal meme. See NVDA for example. :-\
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2024
    #37     Mar 19, 2024
  8. newbunch

    newbunch

    So Cocoa could fall by 70%, but it might rally another 40% before doing so. :D
     
    #38     Mar 19, 2024
    murray t turtle and long like this.
  9. Snuskpelle

    Snuskpelle

    Yeah IIRC but I haven't been able to find that thread and I don't remember who it was. His argument was "historical highs" and disregarding the supply situation.
     
    #39     Mar 25, 2024
  10. p0box4

    p0box4

    Yep. He said fundamentals were bullshit, he was proven wrong fast.
     
    #40     Mar 25, 2024