Once the polls become honest in the last few weeks and used templates with a proper distribution of dems to republicans... you could see Trump had a good chance of winning. As I wrote real time here right before the election... in the last few weeks the polls unskewed themselves. Quite a few polls had hillary with a lead but in the margin for error. I linked to a 538 article which explained that if hillary won the popular vote by 1 or 2 percent she could lose the election because most of here votes were grouped in places like New York and California. Hence she had excess votes in places she was already going to win. Trumps victory was close to 50 shot once the poll became honest and unskewed. If fact if you unskewed the polls the whole time you see the polls were frequently inside the margin for error or with a slight lead for hillary. She was never a lock. She only looked like a lock because the polls were slanted/crooked.