CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone

Discussion in 'Politics' started by RedDuke, May 10, 2018.

  1. Absolutely, but unfortunately there are powers at play that force everyone believing that one has to choose one camp and incorporate all the principles that camp adheres to. Nothing is further from the truth. People should make up their mind and take a stance on each individual issue independently rather than taking a stance on political parties. Divide and conquer is a strategy the ruling elite has used for centuries to keep the Joe on the street dumb and quiet. And that is the disease America currently is suffering the most from.

     
    #31     May 11, 2018
  2. Sorry but I am not, I don't believe in political parties nor groupings because they adhere to the problem I described in my post above. Equally I do not believe nor put my faith into any religion whatsoever because they are man-made yet I strongly believe and put my faith in God and Jesus Christ my savior. We have to relearn to debate issues not people. Only then can we again engage on a meaningful level and make progress. The current situation is toxic and leads to further divisions and hatred without any perceivable benefit.

     
    #32     May 11, 2018
  3. Hotcakes

    Hotcakes

    I agree Direct democracy could be better. Definitely more in line with the times. I will say trump is light years better then Hillary Your milage may vary
     
    #33     May 11, 2018
  4. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    Guy, you make me laugh. I assume most people here are traders/investors of some shape or form and familiar how odds work. When poll showed Trump had 15% chance of winning, it meant that if the election is held 100 times 15 of those would be his wins. It can happen in any order, he happens to nail 1st occurrence.

    He lost general vote by 3 mil and won EC by 80k votes, so odds were pretty correct.

    2016 had something a lot more unimaginable from odds perspective. Leicester City win in English premier soccer league had odds of something around 5000:1, and yet it happened.

    Polls need to be looked at in aggregate as well.
     
    #34     May 11, 2018

  5. Well then, if it is just about odds rather than candidates and campaigning, Hillary should just roll the dice again and overlook her two previous failed attempts.

    Too bad she is not a trade-able commodity so that I could short her bigly. Love it when you put on a short trade and the chart starts looking like a waterfall.
     
    #35     May 11, 2018
  6. As many of us are right now. In fact, it's viturally a requirement!
     
    #36     May 11, 2018
  7. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    Cons go with their gut&heart, not their brain. For reference, look at Trump win
     
    #37     May 11, 2018
  8. Your statistics and statistical assumptions make every first grader cringe. Time for a refresher course in basic probability theory?

     
    #38     May 11, 2018
  9. Nolte — Poll: Optimism in Direction of Country Hits 11-Year High Under Trump
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    AP Photo/Lance Iversen

    by JOHN NOLTE11 May 20181,673

    A poll released by the far-left CNN shows that optimism about the direction of the country under President Trump has hit an 11-year high of 57 percent. The last time this same poll registered a number that high was in January 2007. This includes 40 percent of Democrats, which is a leap of 15 points from just last month.
    Only 40 percent say things are going badly.

    Also of note is that CNN polled a random sample of adults. Polls that screen for registered or likely voters generally produce a more favorable result for Trump. This poll is a good example. While Trump’s job approval rating sits at 41 percent with all adults, when CNN’s polling firm (SSRS) screened for registered voters, the president’s job approval rating jumped to 44 percent.

    The fact that 57 percent of Americans are expressing optimism about the direction of the country is a very big deal and bodes well for Republicans in the upcoming midterm election. What’s more, if the number holds, it is a very good sign Trump will be re-elected despite his own personal job approval ratings.

    What we are seeing with Trump’s job approval number appears to be the exact opposite of what we saw with former President Barack Obama. While Americans were much less satisfied with the direction of the country under Obama (pessimism climbed steadilythroughout his first term), his approval ratings always seemed to defy gravity. This, I think, had to do with the establishment media’s constant cheerleading for Obama, as well as the 44th president’s demeanor.

    It is the exact opposite with Trump. While the president is presiding over a country filled with growing optimism, the Russian collusion hoax hangs over his head and the media continue to cover Stormy Daniels as though an alleged 12-year-old roll in the hay with a porn star is Watergate. Americans are also still not used to Trump being Trump. His refusal to roll over in the face of 24/7 media bias, which is what presidents are supposed to do, most especially Republican presidents, remains a shock to the system. All of the above has probably kept Trump’s job approval rating artificially low.

    Nevertheless, if the American people are happy with the direction of the country, especially if that number is as high as 57 percent, they are going to be much less eager to fire the stagecoach driver and replace the horses.

    Another important number is that 52 percent approve of the way Trump is handling the economy.

    Trump’s numbers also jumped on the issues of foreign trade (38 to 43 percent), foreign affairs (39 to 42 percent), and immigration (36 to 40 percent). Again, keep in mind that these numbers are of all adults, and, therefore, lower than we would see with a screen of registered or likely voters.

    America’s right track/wrong track number is something I have personally been watching for some time. That number has not been above water in the RealClearPolitics poll of pollssince June of 2009, and only then. just barely. By the middle of 2015, that number was below water by 30 points, which is why I believed 2016 would be a change election. Despite people’s personal regard for Obama, by huge majorities, people were pessimistic.

    Today, that average has dipped to a negative of just 14 points.

    Finally, keep in mind that this poll was taken before unemployment dipped to 3.9 percent, three American hostages came home from North Korea, and the summit with North Korea was finalized for next month.

    Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.
     
    #39     May 11, 2018
  10. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    My explanation was for illustration purpose. You missed my main point.
     
    #40     May 11, 2018