Discussion in 'Trading' started by taodr, Sep 5, 2002.
It's the same nonsense they were pushing in late nineties. "this is different now"..... "it's a new economy' etc. Go ask people who own stores in different fields. They'll all tell you they're basically doing 40% this year from what they did last year. Another thing. If I go lease a $50,000 car from gm. For arguments sake lets say I'm paying $650 per month for next four years. No money down. The government books this as a $50,000 sale this month. Although only $650 has changed hands. This gm finance so it's not bought from somewhere else. This totally distorts the figures . A sale is when I actually pay $50.000, but everyone is sucked into this misinformation which eventually contibutes to a bust. Dont forget if economy is alright companies would be spending and stockmarkets going up.
Thats not neccessarily true....You can also sell the house to capture some of the gains/equity; getting a loan is not the only way. But I understand what you mean...Most people opt to cash out instead of selling.
Anytime CNBC (Constant Nuisance Broadcasting Crap) has a piece about something not being a bubble you know what's next..... No bubble at NASDAQ 5000 was there?????
I also heard the "New Paradigm" tossed around, Deja Vu all over again.....
Now they trot out Ken Heebner from a Reit fund. I haven't seen him since well 97 or so.
Well, you may think that but it is not confirmed by the employment numbers. I am not saying employment's not down a bit but it's nowhere near crisis levels. I've been hearing this stuff about high debt loads for 20 years. Either the data are somehow flawed or people can handle it easier than we assume. We have nothing to fear in real estate for a while, but that may change when the boomers all want to cash out. Check back with me in 10 years or so.
Are "most economists" usually right?
That's a good one. Weren't most economists forecasting a good third quarter for this year? Inflation is in check because companies don't dare raise prices. Declining interest rates have allowed for the proliferaton of lower credit card rates, and transfers. This is not to mention the people who have refinanced their homes and spent the money on junk while increasing there debt load....and still not paying down their credit cards.
The only hot item in the world to buy is a computer and their sales are still declining. Anyone rushing out to buy anything else? No!
A long slow bleed lies ahead. There is another very interesting article on CBSMW detailing panic selling.
Would you provide the link, please.
Just read the first page of this thread again...and I live in one of those sweet middle class naighborhoods, and except for ridiculously creative financing, many of my neighbors should not be here. I hear all the time from them, my payment goes up 500 at the end of the year and taxes are going up too. We can barely afford this place now.
Not this kid. We are well within our means. With 20% down and no credit cards. Fixed 6% loan for 5 years. And on the 8th green.
My price per square foot is also well under average here.
It pays to bring the constructon super his lunch and feed the crews during the building process! You end up with more for less, and it is solid as a rock.
Axis et al,
I am terrible with some things, so just go to www.cbsmarketwatch.com. It is an archived article, but it was written the day of or the day after our sell-off on Tuesday. You have to read Thom Calandra today. He and Tomi Kilgore are always right on it. No conjecture. Just straightforward logic with some TA thrown in too.
PM me if you can't find it.
I hope you meant this sarcastically.
The bread I buy was $3/loaf yesterday and it was around $2 2 years ago. The turkey was $7/lb and around $5/lb in the same time frames. I know it cost me way more to buy groceries and fill the tank on my truck than it did 2-4 years ago. This 3-5% inflation that I keep hearing about is a load of crap.....
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