CNBC - Cramer's Mad Money

cramer is making fun of people who use charts tonight.

 

Haven't Un-Tivo'd the show yet today. Laughing at charts? Hell, he puts a chart up of every stock he pontificates on.

 

Haha I just saw that and was like WTF, in his book he admits his wife is a pure technician.

 

He is actually on vacation through the 4th, so tonight was a "fluff" show.

 

yeah, i figured since he didn't scream any stock picks and I didn't see anything ticking up after hours b/c of him.

 

He isn't slamming charts per se. I think he relates it only to trying to find market bottom. He says you have to also look at fundamentals to do that.

 

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/

In this entry, we review the biweekly New York Metro commentary of Jim Cramer regarding the stock market via his archived articles since May 2000. Mr. Cramer is among the most visible and prolific members of the financial media. He is currently the host of Mad Money on CNBC and of RealMoney radio on WOR in New York and TheStreet.com. He is Director, Co-founder, Markets Commentator and Advisor to the CEO at TheStreet.com, where he offers his ActionAlertsPlus email service. He makes hundreds of buy-hold-sell recommendations on individual stocks each month via these channels. We use here his New York Metro commentary because of its lengthy archive and manageable pace. We selected from that commentary all articles which address the future direction of the overall stock market, plus a few articles on high-profile stocks and sectors. The chart below extracts highlights from this commentary and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 21, 63, 126 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those subsequently proven right (wrong) by the market. We conclude that:

* Mr. Cramer is right about 50% (25 out of 51) of the time with his stock market predictions, prone more to headline hyperbole than equivocation.
* His predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic, and back again, over short periods. It is difficult to infer his guiding valuation theory, if he has one. We wonder whether he tends to be swayed by the arguments of forceful advocates with whom he most recently interacted.
* Investor sentiment is sometimes an important contrarian indicator for him. When he sees most investors leaning one way, he advises to go the other way. [See our blog entries of May 19 and October 27, showing that broad investor sentiment is backward rather than forward looking. The entry of May 27 suggests sentiment expressed as futures positions by classes of investors may have modest predictive value.]
* He sometimes anchors on historical analogy, such as: "it's '91 all over again" or "I'm placing my bets for 2004 strictly using 1994's tip sheet.";

In summary, Mr. Cramer's stock market calls since May 2000 have low consistency and approximately coin-flip accuracy. He seems more an entertaining (to some) stream of uncalibrated opinion than a stock market maven.

Amplifying the second bullet point above, we recently sampled a Mad Money show on which Mr. Cramer questioned via audio link Mike Farrell, Chairman, CEO and President of Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY) about the company's recent decline in earnings and cut in dividend. The flattened yield curve is an obvious indicator of continued troubles for this unhedged carry-trade investor in conventional mortgage loans. However, Mr. Cramer did not mount a serious challenge to Mr. Farrell's forceful but oblique defense of Annaly. Instead, he reiterated a buy recommendation.

For similar summaries of the commentaries of other market pundits and gurus, browse Reviews of Web Sites and Market Commentators.

 

I don't love cramer, but 25 of 51 in the lightning round is very very good. 50% getting rapid questions, I couldn't do that.

 

As a trader, i gotta say i like the popularity of the show. i really do not not care about his accuracy, i like the fact that his comments on the show do move the specific stocks he talks about. But for you investors out there, save yourself watching the endless commercials and the mad Cramer foaming at the mouth..... just get out your dartboard.... works just as well...

 

Ain't it the truth. Look at CELL's chart today. At 13:15, briefing reported that Deutsche raised CELL's target from $24 to $42. Stock shot up from $22 to $23.15 in a little over 4 minutes At 13:26, briefing reported that the $42 was a misprint, and the actual target was $25. Stock dropped from $23.01 to $22.29 in 4 minutes.