Take a look at the Bovespa in this millennium - it has a long history of strong volatility and the same goes for the currency BRL. But that is what the emerging economies are all about - greater risks and awards, which is why so many go there for the stronger growths. Even in economic turmoil like now - the emerging markets still have quite strong growth. That is unlike the recession of the US. Just get your facts straight and see the big picture, instead of meaningless details...
. October 9, 2008 SouthAmerica: I was watching CNBC cable and they were discussing about General Motors (GM) stock. Today that stock reached a new low of $ 5.41 per share and its market cap was around $ 3 billion dollars. Americans think that they are good at innovation, but here is an example of a missed opportunity in using innovation to fix many problems at the same time. The US government under the leadership of Comrades Ben S. Bernanke, Henry Paulson, and George W. Bush are consolidating the US economy under one umbrella. They still are doing even that on their incompetent ways. The talking heads at CNBC are saying that the entire financial market is looking for safety under the US government umbrella. The question is: Why the federal government lent $ 15 billion dollars to General Motors (GM) instead of nationalizing that company and buying the outstanding shares for about $ 3 billion dollars? That strategy would also resolve another major problem at the General Motors Corporation since after the US government nationalization of that company then they could transfer GMâs pension obligations to the Pension Guaranty Benefits Corp. (PBGC) and that would have solved another major problem for that corporation. In the GM bailout alone the US government wasted at least an extra $ 10 billion dollars of taxpayers money. And we all know that GM is coming back for more in the future. After they buy and consolidate the GM, and Ford corporations the US government can change the name of the new dinosaur to American Motors. Comrades Ben S. Bernanke, and Henry Paulson could use the same strategy with Ford, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and many other American companies. ***** Americans want to rebuild trust in the US financial system, and here are a few things that they can do immediately to provide more accurate information to for the market players. 1) Since nobody trusts the US financial system anymore, then I donât know why the mainstream media donât put the spotlight on the US GDP figure, the US government publishes all the time some meaningless figure that somebody dreams up in Washington D.C. of around $ 14.5 trillion dollars. After you adjust that figure by the percentage of garbage that they add to that figure which some prominent economists say should be at least 15 to 20 percent of the official figure that the US government publishes on a regular basis. After you clean up the official GDP figure then you end up with a more realistic figure around $ 9 trillion dollars. 2) Wall Street and the US financial system are desperate and they want to adopt right now the WorldCom type of General Unacceptable Accounting Principles (GUAP) â The type of accounting principles designed to deceive, and distort financial information. Do you remember when the stock of WorldCom was trading close to $ 50 dollars per share and then collapsed in a short time close to nothing and eventually WorldCom went out of business? Just to give you an example what the financial companies here in the United States have in mind, they want to keep carrying their WorldCom type of investments at the higher value, and they donât want to write off into their profit and loss statement the loss associated with the decline in value of the WorldCom type of investment â just in case the WorldCom investment rise from the dead. That is their thinking about a lot of garbage that they are carrying on their financials right now. Their excuse is that if they write off all these losses then this would have a negative impact on their earnings and also would reduce the market value of their stocks on the open market. ****** The US government also needs desperately to use this emergency strategy: Thereâs one thing that the US government should be doing right now, they should be preparing a package to request the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan to rescue the US government, and the US economy. As part of the new agreement with the IMF the US government should start thinking about changing its currency with the âNEW U.S. DOLLARâ To convert the current U.S. Dollar to the New U.S. Dollar the US government should use the ratio of $ 100 old US dollar = N$ 1 US dollar. That would give the people the impression that the New US Dollar still worth something, and it would help restore some confidence in the value of the US currency. .
. October 17, 2008 SouthAmerica: I was just turned the TV on to CNBC to check the market averages and they started talking about an article by Warren Buffett that was published on The New York Times today. First, Mr. Buffettâs credibility has been evaporating during this current financial crisis, he has become just a mouth piece for the $ 700 billion dollars bailout, and in favor of giving Treasury Secretary Paulson a blank check, and he is involved in all kinds of self-interest deals related with all the activities that is going on related to this bailout. The hard sell about buying real estate toxic assets that he gave on The Charlie Rose Show, was just a bait and switch game, and he is a major shareholder of Wells Fargo a company that has been fighting with Citigroup to get the carcass of what is left of Wachovia. He is also a close advisor to Californiaâs Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who is trying to get a piece of the action on this bailout mess with the help from â you guessed right â Goldman Sacks. He is connected with the Goldman Sacks crowd in many ways (Paulson and his cronies) including his old friendship with Treasury Secretary Paulson. Mr. Warren Buffett went from being the worshiped âOracle from Omahaâ to becoming today just the âWheel and Dealâ old man of Omaha. It is interesting how he timed his little article that was published today October 17, 2008 on The New York Times, and this date falls right at the time when the stock market really have its down turns during the traditional American season for market crashes such as: The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14th. October 24 (known as Black Thursday) was the first in a number of increasingly shocking market drops that was followed swiftly by Black Monday on October 28 and Black Tuesday on October 29. The most famous crash happened on October 29, 1929. The talking heads of CNBC mentioned that on this article on The New York Times Mr. Buffett says that he is buying some stocks for his private account. Why the private account? Because he can buy just a few hundred thousand dollars of stock (any stock) and he still can claim that he was buying stock at this time of blood on the street. Mark Haines one of the CNBC commentators said that in other market down turns when Mr. Buffett also came out and wrote an article for The New York Times on both occasions he was 3 months and 6 months ahead of the stock market bottom. That means that in six months the Dow Jones can be hitting bottom. How do you fell if you buy stock today on the recommendation of Warren Buffett and the Dow goes down another 2,000 points from the current level? If we consider all the turmoil going on right now in the global financial markets, please donât be surprised if we see the Dow Jones around the 7,000 levels in the near future. Please keep in mind about Mr. Buffettâs opinions today, he is just a self-serving very rich old man and his opinions come attached with a lot of self-interest. And at this time we need to take his opinion with a grain of salt. .
SouthAmerica. Stocktrader is an extreme You're an extreme. But you're both equally stupid. Go to Cuba and sell your ass to the politburo, loser.
. Oktiri: SouthAmerica. Stocktrader is an extreme You're an extreme. But you're both equally stupid. ***** October 17, 2008 SouthAmerica: I am giving my opinion about what I expect is going to happen in the stock market in the near future. Since you think my opinion is stupid then it will be easy for us to check it out. All we need is a little of patience and we can check back on the following dates. Right now the Dow Jones is at 8,963. If you think I am a loser then letâs check back at which level the Dow is going to be on the following dates: January 31, 2009 and April 30, 2009. As of October 17, 2008 - Dow Jones = 8,963 As of January 31, 2009 â Dow Jones = ? As of April 30, 2009 â Dow Jones = ? By the way, what you are going to find out is that my posting was not as stupid as you think. I hope you are following Mr. Buffettâs suggestion and you are investing all your money today to take advantage of this on going market decline. .
. October 17, 2008 SouthAmerica: Reply to Oktiri I checked the Dow a few minutes ago and the market was up over 200 points. This is what we call a âSuckers Rallyâ and the smart money is probably shorting stock at the expense of suckers such as you. I would not be surprised that Warren Buffett is giving a pep talk to the market to be able to unload some of the investments that he want to unload from his portfolio. I would not be surprised also to find out in the future that the stock that he mentioned that he is buying right now are stocks such as Petrobras. .
. October 18, 2008 SouthAmerica: I had posted also on the PBS - Washington Week Forum the information that I posted on this forum about Warren Buffett. An old member of the PBS forum - a college history and economics professor - we had discussed many subjects over the years and now he was surprised by my posting about Warren Buffett, and here is my response to that fellow. By the way, my screen name on that forum is Brazil. ********** October 18, 2008 Brazil: Reply to Sir Scud I have been an admirer of Warren Buffett since 1969 when I started working for John M. Templeton. And here is what I wrote a few years ago about these outstanding men and posted it here on this website, and latter I also posted it on the Elite Trader Forum. For many years I did work with an exceptional group of people at Templeton, Dobrow & Vance (TDV) and learned Mr. Templetonâs philosophy from this group of people who had been working for Mr. Templeton for a long time. This was before Mr. Templeton built his mutual funds empire. He had only the Templeton Growth Fund a fund he had started in 1954. This friend of mine I met him when both of us were working for John Templetonâs company in the early 1970âs â my friend had been a financial analyst for John Templeton for the last 25 years â that was before John Templeton moved to the Bahamas and his mutual fund empire was moved to Florida. John Templetonâs company had been located in Englewood, NJ for a long time â and Mr. Templeton was the president, and Colonel Donald Liddell was the chairman of the board. I was a very young man at that time, but Mr. Templeton was nice to me because he knew that I had just come from Brazil and he found my country very interesting. I spent a lot of time with this group over the years even after I left that company I stayed in contact with some of these very close associates of Mr. Templeton and though these guys I knew everything that was happening regarding Mr. Templeton. I got to know very well besides Mr. Templeton, Mr. Donald Liddell the Chairman of TDV, and these two men were a symbol of integrity, ethics, honesty, trust, and basically they donât have too many people like that in America business anymore I heard stories how other unscrupulous businessman had made offers to Mr. Templeton and he declined every time â he refused to do any type of business that was not 100 percent legal, ethical, and he did it with the highest level of integrity. He did everything by the book. But Mr. Liddell made a big impression on me. At that time I was finishing high school and started going to college, but for some reason these old guys invited me to go to lunch with them almost on a daily basis â there were 5 or 6 of them and they were financial analysts or investment counselors for their private accounts â all of them had graduated from Princeton or Yale University and my friend had graduated with an engineering degree from Cornell University. These guys were a bunch of very smart fellows and all of them were millionaire. But for some reason that group did not mind that a 18-year-old kid tag along for lunch with them almost on a daily basis. But the person that I want to mention is Colonel Liddell (people called him Colonel Liddell because he had been a Colonel in the US army during world war II) â Colonel Liddell was a brilliant investment counselor and he did handle the investment account of many famous people at that time â Colonel Liddell also was on the board of directors of close to 50 different companies. He was one of the closest friends of Mr. John Templeton, and he used to go and spend his vacation with Mr. Templeton on his Bahamas mansion. But what I remember the most about Colonel Liddell was his sense and practice of ethics and integrity, because today it is rare to find people in the investment world with that same high standard of ethics and integrity of people such as Colonel Liddell and also John Templeton. Today most people in Wall Street would laugh of Colonel Liddell, with few exceptions such as Warren Buffet and a few others â But here is a lesson from Colonel Liddell to the new generation: Colonel Liddell had a major investment in a bank here in New Jersey and he also was a member of the board of directors of that bank â and over the years he invested the money of many of the clients that he handled their investment account on the stock of that bank â and over the years his clients did very well with their investments. But in the late 1970âs and early 1980âs that bank started having financial problems and the stock started declining accordingly. Here comes the ultimate ethics and integrity lesson: Colonel Liddell wrote a memo and he sent to all his accounts saying that the bank had financial problems and that Colonel Liddell was going to sell his financial position on that bank â but before he did that he wanted to give a chance for all the people who he had invested their money in that stock for them to get out of that stock before he sold his position. By doing that Colonel Liddell lost a few extra million dollars of his own money, but he felt the obligation to let the other people sell their stock positions before he sold his. Since then when hear people talk about honesty, ethics and integrity the first person that comes to mind it is the name of Colonel Donald Liddell because he did practice all these virtues in real life. ***** As I mentioned above I have been an admirer of Mr. Buffett for almost 40 years, and I thought he was in the same league with Mr. Templeton â a similar investment philosophy, a similar outstanding investment record, a very high level of integrity, and I thought these were men of outstanding character who were beyond reproach. Since I knew Mr. Templeton so well over the years I am almost sure that he would not have gone to the Charlie Rose Show to support the $ 700 billion dollars Wall Street bailout. He had an aversion to government intrusion in the private sector. I know Mr. Templeton would be in shock today with the massive nationalization of US companies, and heavy US government intervention against the workings of a free market economy that is underway in the United States. I am sure that he would not be a supporter of the Wall Street bailout since that would go completely against his investment and economic philosophy. No wonder we have a crisis of trust in the banking system and financial market, with so much US government intervention making an effort to keep the distortions in the US market from adjusting itself and finding a new equilibrium and the real prices deflated from the artificial bubbles, and artificial thinking. Here is what I mean by a conflicts of interest by Mr. Buffett: I mentioned on the above posting about Mr. Buffettâs relationship with Treasury Secretary Paulson, and his new investment in Goldman Sacks on the days prior to the approval of the bailout that Mr. Buffett was lobbying for it on the Charlie Rose Show. Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. is the top institutional holder of Wells Fargo & Company stock. As of June 30, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway owned 9 percent or 290,654,868 shares of common stock of Wells Fargo valued at $ 7 billion dollars. On this new US government welfare program for the major US banks the Wells Fargo bank is getting $ 25 billion dollars (including $ 5 billion dollars that was going to Wachovia now part of Wells Fargo) Two weeks ago the Goldman Sacks investment banking company turned itself into a banking holding company just in time to qualify for this new US government welfare program, and they are going to receive $ 10 billion dollars. In just these two companies that Mr. Buffett has interests worth about $ 10 billion dollars â combined these 2 companies are receiving from the US government welfare program for the rich â a handout to the tune of $ 30 billion dollars. The latest issue of Business Week magazine dated October 27, 2008 has a table listing all the major banks that are receiving this handout from the US government and they list also the amount of the welfare check that each bank is going to receive. I am sure that Mr. John M. Templeton wouldnât have involved himself in such a scheme completely full of conflicts of interest, and he also wouldnât have sold his soul and his credibility for a fist full of dollars. .
October 18, 2008 SouthAmerica: Regarding the above posting. Wrong info: In just these two companies that Mr. Buffett has interests worth about $ 10 billion dollars â combined these 2 companies are receiving from the US government welfare program for the rich â a handout to the tune of $ 30 billion dollars. ***** Correct info: In just these two companies that Mr. Buffett has interests worth about $ 10 billion dollars ( Wells Fargo $ 7 billion dollars and Goldman Sacks $ 3 billion dollars) â combined these 2 companies are going to receive from the US government welfare program for the rich a handout to the tune of $ 35 billion dollars. (Wells Fargo $ 25 billion dollars and Goldman Sacks $ 10 billion dollars) .