I missed the Asian open gap play. I was going to max out on leverage and go long equity. It would have bumped me into first. for me the contest is over. Unless one more gap play plays out as I’m thinking.
I was long with a small position when the Trump tweet hit the news. Of course I got out of the rally early. Then I got the eventually correct idea that since he always lies, the market would sell back where it was. Good idea, bad timing. I lost twice more then what I made. The following volatility didn't help much but I closed Thursday at 110K. Then I looked at what else was everyone trading and Palladium has been on fire. It is actually going vertical (think of Bitcoin in 2017 December) and I think it will top and sell back in the next 2 days. So I went long on it heavy last night. I also went short ES options because I thought the China deal is not going to happen. Well, look up PA it is crazy, that made more than what I lost on the options. so here I am right now at 113K where I was back on Tuesday. Not too good, but I didn't get blown up. PA might hit 2000 today (1954 now), and the winner is going to be whoever manages to get out close to the top when/if it drops back. Once a stock or futures goes vertical it always falls back heavily afterwards. It is just extremely hard to predict where the actual top is going to be. We shall see.
The top 2 guys are fully loaded on Palladium. In the last hour they dropped 20K while PA went from 1956 to 1940. I might just short it for fun and giggles. Trader Freethinkin was up 98K when I first checked and got out of my PA long. Currently he is only 78K up. By the way when the Daily P/L and the Total P/L are nearly identical, that just means the trader is holding a large open position. It doesn't mean he made it all on the same day.
Watch the boys giving it back while PA is melting down... 1928 now. Should bounce around 1923. (Edit: so far the low was just above 24) Freethinkin is "only" up 65K now. Looks like some of these traders are just blindly long, and can't read a chart when it is telling overbought. Edit: This is like a horse race. Spectre is coming up with almost 60K and Palladium boys are losing bad. Spectre could finish 2nd, the top guy now trades ES.
PA is a buy here at 1913, should go up to 1935. Spectre has came up to 2nd now. Looks like we don't have a bounce at 1913...