Yeah, after this fiasco that was my conclusion as well. Hopefully this will become less of an issue as more and more futures go electonic. I've found the slippage is so horrible in the pits in most cases that there's not even a good way to estimate it -- if I use the worst fills I'd never trade again. If I used the best fills it woefully underestimates the slippage.
My dad has traded lumber forever and has done pretty well for himself. One time he bought up to 12% of the market. Once we went down to the cme pit and looked at the guys there. A few were just talking and laughing and the others were eather sitting on the side of the pit reading the newspaper or standing with a glazed look in there eyes. Key for lumber is LIMIT LIMIT LIMIT.
True, I would just stay way from the pit traders. Their days are numbered, so hopefully they will be eliminated in our lifetime, but for the meantime have you check out ICE Softs?
i doubt it; with Canadian mills cutting back ; supply should constrain demand driven concerns sparked by housing downturn