Make no mistake, I'm one of the losers so far this week. Thanks to those who have refrained from getting personal. It's easy to do with $2-$3 swings on a daily/hourly basis. While it's true that some of us are shorting in a bull market, keep in mind that people who shorted YHOO at $400 were also shorting in a bull market. And THAT was considered a very dangerous, risky thing to do At That Time (because Yahoo was "different"). Very little news about tomorrow's inventory numbers. Estimates look quite varied. I'm getting between 1-1.3 million surplus estimates for crude. Anyone else?
Its possible that this may be a reversal point for CL. Yesterday was a strong up day with it closing near the high of the day followed by a small gap up this morning. It made a new high today but then retraced off it quite a bit. This looks similar to the Evening Star reversal candlestick pattern. If we see a strong down day for CL tomorrow (preferably on strong volume) for confirmation I will probably establish a short position. Bearish Evening Star http://candlesticker.com/Cs72.asp
I shorted one contract here at $87.00. Got about 2 more contracts I can add to my shorts with a stop at $90.50. This upward move is ridiculous. Lots of speculation and not a whole lot of fundamentals behind it.
You are 100% right!. the CLX7-CLZ7 spread hasn't move much in the past 4-5 days (between .98 and 1.04) while the outright is up 8 dollars. On the Other hand the world is swimming in crude oil. There was a reason that the U.S. imported less crude oil for the week ending October 5, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. We didn't need it. Crude oil brokers, refiners and many others are left shaking their heads as crude oil prices spiral out of control. But I think we will see the 90' first. good luck.
I too short in a bull market, but This market is just too strong right now to get blasted in your face, scrambling to cover.
Original poster still alive and well... As mentioned on Pg. 3, I already closed out at a slight profit which was when CL came off from 83 down to 78.5. I have been flat energy since then but I am still looking to renter CL short any moment now. They could send it up to 90 in a blow-out attempt in which case it is best to wait it out for now. I am well aware of the frenzy in the energy ring at the moment. Especially the action in the options and crack desks is self explanatory. Bear in mind that CL is still in backwardation...
I'm thinking today was the blow-off top and tomorrow morning when the Turkish Parliament approves an Iraq invasion, we'll get a sell-off in a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction. I'm not too worried about that pipe line. It's in neither the Kurds nor the Turks interest to see it disrupted. If and when we get a Turkish invasion, we'll get a powerful but short lived spike higher in crude ala Israel going into Lebanon. Exercise for the reader: see if you can play this spike on both sides.