CL made a historical high close in the pits@$83.10. Which carries more weight, failure to make a new intra-day high or the closing print? el surdo
As you guys were licking your chops over an anticipated oil collapse during the last week, I stayed long and rode OIH up 10 points (I got out when the sell off started today). Keep up the good work. __________________ Please, I'm not a daytrader, I'm an "Intraday Liquidity Provider" IF YOU HAVE TO ASK THAT, YOU SHOULD NOT BE TRADING OPTIONS!!
ImO it is starting to look weakish as it fails to break through the high, it's holding trendline so far but histogram on 10 min chart is declining, also p/a looks like a rounded top (today).
If the crack spread gets any narrower, you'll see refiners mixing up heating oil and gasoline to get back to crude! Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading
No question, we just about had a head-and-shoulders drop there, which would have been quite large. But the inventory report trumped TA, as it should. A 1.7 million surplus should mean higher prices, and it did. What's frustrating is that the market did not seriously evaluate the 1.7 buildup in gasoline, which was just as much of a surprise to the analysts. Winter won't be decided by one week. It is long, cold, and unlikely to forgive $80 oil prices when natty and gasoline are the exact opposite.
Are you saying oil will go up because a long, cold winter will require a lot of heating oil? Or are you saying oil will go down because it will recouple with soft natural gas and gasoline prices?
sorry Aaron, the latter. I believe oil should begin to fall as winter approaches. Not to discount heating oil, but I would still look to gasoline as the major price dictator for crude. Something to keep in mind: We had a 1.7 million barrel drop in crude this week, but a 1.7 million barrel increase in gasoline (both were surprises). Refineries typically use two barrels of crude to make one barrel of gasoline. Do the math, and last week was actually a big inventory gain.