Not a bad looking chart, seems to be holding support and consolidating http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36415581310
A sudden increase in the cost of shipping oil on tankers may be a sign of additional oil being sold into the market, warned analysts at Deutsche Bank in a research note on Friday. "In the near term, we believe the crude oil price has entered overbought territory," Deutsche said. Hmmmm....
In terms of TA, this is worth considering: http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm About the oil tankers, there is no question that if the US economy drops, they will consume less oil and the rest of the world will consume more. The bottom line is how much. Personally, I believe we're headed into winter and so is most of the developed world. Unless Australia sucks every last barrel dry, the season will slow demand. TA also indicates this, history indicates this, current prices indicate this, inventory reports indicate this. It's a reasonable assumption at this point, imho.
A move under 60 for USO would complete the H&S imo. Could go to 55 depending on how steep the coming break goes...
I'm out of this trade at a slight profit today. just enforcing a personal trading rule regarding price breaks and the expected time window has passed now so on to the next trade. Could still see lower crude prices by 10/22 but short side risk has increased due to prolonged weakness in the USDX imo...
lol torontotrader, nice of you to mention that just as oil approaches an all-time high all i can say is wow. The market says I'm wrong, but I still have to hold my sentiment. Not to be stubborn, I just don't see the fundamentals to support these prices going into winter. Open to suggestions here.
My BIGGEST problem too is bias. I believe the market SHOULD do such and such. But we MUST follow what the market IS doing.