Just want to show a visual of why i took my first entry at 1355.50, even though i was stopped out at 1357. I base my entries on trend and price action. Trend was down, clear Lower Lows and Higher Lows. I was looking for shorts. Minor trendline was down and it intersects with the minor up trendline. Also, intersects with nice resistence line (pink line on chart). Some added confluence was the 50% fib retrace from the swing high to low. I took the enrty based on the engulfing bar. Even had an M top right on the intersection of the lines but still the entry failed.
A few adjustments to the trendline, which was actually still valid and the fact that consolidation had completed 5 waves which i find often adds some probability to the move. The target was based on resistance which i previously stated at a fib projection. Entry was at 1356.75
Just going over my 3rd entry today, i see it was bad odds play for me to go long. My major pivot resistance line was not broken and downtrend line was still intact. Also, moves was roughly 10 points (rules of 10). Also, moves like that when price just keeps going up without any retracements often way of clearing some stops and kill the weak shorts. Also, it tempts clowns like myself to get in on such a strong move.
New day, don't really know what to expect today. I am looking at the 1342-1345 as nice buy zone. The zone looks strong on the 60min chart and the 15min chart. However, it will be in the face of the inverse head and shoulders forming. If we can get to the 42-45 region i will most likely be taking a pop at a buy - i will narrow the buy to best possible timing using the 1min chart as the entry chart. It might get stopped quickly and may require a re-entry on this one. If we break that zone i will be getting bearish again. Right now the 60 min chart still in uptrend imo.
I am hoping to add a 3rd account which will be very much longer term - again still trading futures. These are my major zones on the daily chart - you can actually see how we are coiling into a triangle right now (not drawn lines on chart). Daily is in a downtrend, i feel we are in a bear market and i am reminded of Reminiscence of Stock Operator where Old Partridge used to say 'Its a Bull Market'. Well this is a bear market so until we see some Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the daily i will be attempting to short at the strong zones listed on the chart. I actually got my best trade of the year was getting a swing short at 1390 as we tested my first zone. I did not have the guts to place a limit sell right at 1400. It a Bear Market don't you know so sell the longer term bounces.
Well im not very happy because i left a limit buy at 1344 which was very conservative, i should have left this is at 1342 as i was away from the station. Filled at 1344 - not very happy with that at all. Wider stop due to different strategy play. Lets see what happend, still has not touched the trendline on 60min chart so may mean another low. If we blast through this zone then i have to change my opinion big time. Blasted my stop at 41 - really should not add positions infront of news.
Sitting right on the 60min trendline now, lets see if this holds - i may position another long. Only swing position - however not looking good. Sidelines for now
clown if u connect the 1/23 and 2/11 lows your support for today is around 1331=2,when u didnt by at your 41 support and then bought at 44, u now have the chance of it retesting 41 before it goes to your upside target,u might try buying at your support lines and keep a tight stop, that way it support doesn't hold, in this case it didn't,you are out for a small loss, u got long at 44 and had to wait for it 2 break 41 to get out, bigger loss,when u hit a trendline that is your maximum advantage point for a sure thing,they don't always hold but there is a hi percentage, there is no SURETHING, so dont feel foolish if its a loser, just feel foolish if u dont keep it a small loser