Anyone who uses market profile could show that a down move to 57 was inevitable especially with weakness creeping in on the 60min chart. I was hoping for the trend day yesterday in my day account - we basically consolidated slightly but that is the beauty of have a separate longer time frame account. It allows much more time for things to come to fruition. I would advice anyone to have multiple strategies on the same market - imo if you have a strong bias on a particular day then pursuing it from the day trade standpoint can be costly and mentally fatiguing. Alternative will be to position short in a longer time frame account and let it run. This allows you to simply focus in the minor moves in day account.
I want to share with you the 15min chart. It has blasted through one support area but bouncing of the next level at 50. I hope everyone viewing this could see the beautiful short at 62 represented by the down arrow. See how it break down and then tests as it often does the previous support (now resistance) - this is the ideal place where shorts can jump on with such low risk. I mean for a short there i am sure you can nail that with a 3 point stop.
I would love for this to bounce from this level back to 62 level. Want to see a move to1345 today before the day is up. Again we have somewhat of a balance day yesterday - just think how some of those long went home yesterday. Price closed near the low of the day - most longs will probably be nervous going into today. Then the overnight gap down puts them in the hole big time. If they are late longs to the party then the are most likely already under by 15 points. I am sure if it remains this way a lot of those longs will be forced to puke their position when we open. This is what fuels the big trend days. Again it can often turn on a dime but my belief is unless price is telling you otherwise in a big way then do not fade a break from balance. Bulls need something right now but hopefully we break down today and that might lead to some very nice volatility in next few days.
You know what Volente - could not agree more with this post. I realised quite a while ago that indicators for me just did not cut it. I think traders come into this game befuddled into thinking that trading is so hard and mathematically complex - this may be true for the quants or arb groups of many institutional traders but we are simply speculators. Just because trading is shown to be so difficult and complex individuals cannot accept that a simple method can outperform their well thought out gizmos and indicators. I now rely on on such simplicity for my trading that i feel i could teach a 10 year old how to do it. Does this diminish my own intelligence (as i feel like i am sure many traders do that i am highly intelligent - i mean damn i have the degree's and grades to prove it right) - yet i am relying on methods to trade the most complex of instruments that most 10 year old could use. When i started trading i thought my intelligence could help me produce the holy grail - i tried many different complex methods even thinking of implementing neural networks at one point - i think the reason fot this was that i needed this to be difficult and mentally very complex. I soon realised as you did that money can be made of simple methods with money management being the most important tool. Good trading to you Volente - i hope you can share more insights with us.
Again same principle could be used for a short of 56. These strong trend days often provide the best risk to reward trades. This is looking very weak right now i really want to see a big bounce which i can short into during RTH. No swing longs until we break out of this downtrend on longer term charts. Lets hope for a volatile day
Trying something silly here. Shorting straight from open at 54.50. Very very high chance of stop-out. Hoping for an open-drive down which will net me about 5-6 points.
Always think what the other players are going to do and how you would feel in certain positions. The rest is simple human emotions of fear and greed.
Got my open drive so will be holding for more here. Beautiful start to the day with limited risk. Want 44 as a target.