Don't pay attention to RSI - probably another useless indicator imo - i do realise overnight GAP but strongest downtrend days rarely fill the gap. It often breaks much lower straight from the open or they try a partial fill before more shorts come on board. I don't like having too much bias in my trading - i see something, in this case i saw potential for a massive short with very low risk and i took it. Its all about R:R in the long run. My potential reward on a trade like this is something like 10-20 points whereas my risk is a couple of points. Even with a 30-40% win rate you come ahead bit time in long run on trades like this. This is the way i like to trade my day account anyway.
It's a tough hold but he's actually made the correct decision according to my analysis. The market can go quite a bit lower before ever filling that gap ... indicators like the RSI aren't the most useful way of analyzing price action ... they can go into oversold or overbought territory and hold for quite some time before beginning to oscillate again. Good trading.
Well if this current 10:10 bar closes above the previous bar. You just got yourself an up channel and you can be in big trouble.
I think a lot of traders fail because they care only about win ratios - this basically shows them that they are right because they have a good win ratio. However, the delude to the fact that their gains are often minuscule compared to their risk. I care not of win ratio as i have my system statistics which shows what i need to make money. The rest is psychology - i am here to catch moves with low risk and low win ratio but in long run that should put edge in my favour. I have daily draw down limits which protects my capital from my big win days. Risk management and healthy R:R is what matters in trading imo. I am not here to stroke my ego and be right on every trade - i ma not that good of a trader and I'm sure not many have 70% win ratio's anyway. Good trading to all.
Yea you're right, I do try to clip a small percentage each day. My goal is 2 points on 40 contracts a day. That's miniscule compared to what the ES does. But guess what, 2 points a day on 40 contracts is 1M dollars a year.
Your right it probably will go against me. But i do have very small risk on this trade. No problem if i get stopped just on to the next one. We are not here to stroke the ego - here to make money. I am not deluding anyone to the fact that my win ratio is not great. However, i have enough screen action to see where potential home runs can be made.
That's your edge, every trader has their own method. For me - i hate risk so i never hold trades which go against me. Everyone aims for an average 2 point daily gain over the long run. Its just how we arrive at that average that differs - mine is usually a couple of big days when the markets are good and then weak day on the chop. Again every trader need to trade based on their own personality. Good trading to you - and please keep posting. Hopefully you can provide us with some expertise on trading the ES. Thanks in advance.
Oh I totally agree but you know what, I'm sure you're only trading 1 contract lots. Yea you can take those chances. When you're trading a lot more contracts, you need to watch the amount of trades you take. All you need is 3 trades a day tops and looking for 3 very high probability trades. My win % is about 90% while averaging about 2-3 trades a day. You don't need to be in everything. It's your money and you can do what you please. Their's also a million type of methods/trading strategies that work. In the end, I wish you all the best and I hope you're very successful.