Well that was a lot of effort! Taking to long - i have to grab some food. Need to bank some dollars as well in this miserable day so far. Closed this at 78.25 for + 8 Will trade better this evening session - more patience is required. Net positive for the day now at least. Damn it, i knew it would gun for that 1380. Missed out on some extra $$$ there. Short must find this excruciating - i love this wedge type action - especially when you can be patient in a long position.
Wow can't believe i missed out on all that. Hitting the key zone now. Trying a crazy short here at 86.
Short was actually quite strong lets see if it holds. Here is what i am looking at: firstly that was a resistance zone, secondly we also touched top of a resistance trend line on the 15min chart. Often rallies like this are good for a nice 10 point drop as obviously this can't keep going up forever but trying shorts on this type of action is often very painful. Also, lets not get too excited just yet. Value on the day is still lower. They might consolidate here though and in that case i will be exiting this short at a favourable price.
Will leave my stop at even here. Target is 79. Have to really get some food for real now - damn action is hypnotising
Damn it back from lunch too see i have been stopped out. Bulls are strong, if only it had hit 63 my swing position would have been filled. Thats problem with limit orders - if i believed in the move i should still got long at higher price.
All or nothing here - short again at 87.75. Again the trade is still valid so i have to take another attempt at it. Value is still lower - this action seems a bit dodgy to me. They might blast it up one more time but i have an inkling this is gonna come down hard.
Because i don't have the ability to scale out i try to limit my losses on any trade without getting fixed on an idea. Hence, i will now move my stop to very tight position so i lose as little as possible on this trade. This will give me a chance to get back on at a more favourable point if the trade is still valid. It is when you get attached to a position is when greatest losses occur. I like to change my opinion very quickly instead of hoping that i am right all the time. This way you will always catch a few 8-10 points of the nice price action days. Again this is very easy to say but the psychology of constant small losses is very hard for many. Then when they have a nice trade on they only look to regain all the money they are down for that particular day. E.g. today i was down 4ES points and made a nice long trade. However, i took my gains very early without focusing on the action which showed no sign of turn in trend. Had i been up for the day I'm sure i would have let that one more room to run with my trail. That just simple example of traders psyche on any given day.
What makes you think so? I do notice now that the breakout from the last consolidation area was only ~3pts while the oscillations were around 4.5pts each... sign of an impending reversal?
I must admit that this may just consolidate and sit around this 80-90 zone for rest of the day. However, the rally from 11:00-12:30 was dodgy price action. A good rally is usually quick blasts of buying with 3-4 points per 1min bar - then a little consolidation, then another blast. However, it almost looks like today's rally from the times i mentioned was a lot of distribution taking place. Again i don't like thinking too hard at what the big players are doing as i just like to watch price. This type of rally does not offer good places of entry for many other time frame players and it is in essence designed to trap certain player e.g. they keep buying, price just keeps going up without hardly any retrace and then they are left at the top as bag holders before blasting down. All i am seeing is the last couple of weeks market profile value zone of 57 and 85-87 as decent resistance. Moreover, we have channel hit top at 88, hence, the reason why i am picking shorts at those levels. Market profile is showing value dragging higher now with consolidation near the highs which may mean more rallying later in the day. Its just probabilities, i find decent probability of going short with extremely low risk entries and massive rewards. Am i right? Well no one ever will know 100% - just good odds IMO. If i see bulls in charge i am sure i will change my opinion very quickly.