Hello all, i am the ESclown. I am starting this journal to get some consistency with my trading and hopefully admit to all mistakes i make each and everyday. I guess if the mistakes are open to the world i have to stop messing up eventually otherwise I'm going to seem like a complete Clown everyday. I trade the ES and sometimes other markets. However, i usually concentrate on ES alone. I use a price action strategy, i do not use indicators at all. I have 2 accounts for trading the ES, first one is a day trade account and the 2nd is my swing trade account. So i might have a longer term short position and a shorter term long position. I try not to hedge and play each account with different strategies. My swing trade account generally tries to hold a trade for 2-7 days. Usual targets average about 30 ES points. I am very patient with this account and it grows steadily. My day trade account seems to do great then i have a sucker punch day and lose all my discipline and get killed. Also, i have realised that my problem is not my analysis but my psychology. I have started to read my psychology books just to improve my own understanding of how my brain works. I often go through the 4 dumb stages: HOPE, BARGAINING, DEPRESSION and ACCEPTANCE with my bad trades. When i make a bad trade which goes against my plan i tend to HOPE that market may be kind to me, even though i know my edge statistically works i still deviate from my plan and forget all about my probability structure. When the bad trade starts going against me i start BARGAINING with the market to let me out at a good price. Obviously the market is cruel mistress and will punish me so i reach the DEPRESSION stage just wanting the pain to end. I get out at worst possible time and that leads me to..... ACCEPTANCE - even though i have lost a chunk i know next time i will stick to my plan and all will be better. This is like my circle of trading but i get better and better each and every week, learning from my own psyche mistakes. My plan: i have an edge with statistical probability in my favour. I also use a risk to reward barometer on each trade. I know am concentrating on my money management, i have a $50000 account and i am now only willing to have max draw-down of 2% ($1000 per day). No more will i be trading more than 1 contract. For every $30000 dollars in my account i will trade 1 contract. This is very conservative for some but i figure its my only way to build discipline and longer term security. I am not going for 1000% returns per year, i will be happy with 40% return. Obviously as i grow more experienced i will increase my risk propensity. Problem with only 1 contract is that i cant scale out which is a major disadvantage to me. I will document some of my reasons and images for my day trades as we go along. Hope all who read enjoy.
No charts today as i have just started the journal. Tomorrow i will have updates and try to list my trades in real time (i may be late in posting actual entries) please do not think i am tricking anyone its just my method requires quick anticipation and entries. I rarely have entries waiting to be filled, i am not comfortable until i see some sort of confirmation. Hence, i will try to post as near to real time as i can. Todays result was not good, traded like a clown and held on too winners to long and then got taken out at breakeven. That is the problem with ignoring analysis and only trading 1 contract - i tend to hold to long as i have no chance of scaling out. I know i am undercapitalised and i will suffer as a result but i will still continue with risk management measures with only 1 contract per $30000. If i am any good i should be able to make money with that 1 contract. If not then i need more work! No swing positions today - flat Day trade: 4 trades and result: -$300 Will go into more depth with errors and results tomorrow with analysis and some reason for entry.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/ I recently found this website which focuses on trading psychology. I need to read it more thoroughly and more often. In my opinion, it would serve everyone on this site well to check it out if you are interested in trading psychology. If you trade all day, you'll eventually realize there's more to the game than x's and o's. How you execute the plan and why you make the decisions you do are huge components to your success. If you find it interesting, cool. If not, no worries. I just had it bookmarked and thought you may find it interesting.
Nice blog - thanks for the link. I agree completely and i have started to feel trading with my system is about 70% psychology, 25% money management and 5% actual skill. I might be exaggerating slightly but sometimes the analysis is often the easiest part of trading.
I'm glad you found the blog useful. My execution is my biggest problem which in turn is psychology. I used to think finding ideas was going to be the biggest trading challenge. I was wrong. I've recently started watching ES and will be checking out your journal to compare notes. Stay focused to you and make some money!
Okay new day, lets start with some analysis to get the thought process clear. Looking at my 60min analysis, price has reached my first target of 1370 from the bounce of the lower resistence. Its a shame i did not hold my swing position to my 1st tgt instead getting rid at 1358 (1330entry - 1358exit) on tuesday. 60 min chart still in an uptrend so will not be getting swing short until the lower trendline is broken. I believe a lot in following the trend, so let price tell me when to change opinion
Even though my daily chart is showing considerable upside till we reach atleast 1400 again my 15 min chart gettin me a bit nervous. Wedge is being formed with clear 5 wave, and hitting right into resistence. The catalyst for the downward break could be the Intial Claims coming out today. Again i will play what price tells me to play.
I won't be playing the news announcement because i have to pop out for awhile. I don't usually play news announcements but if we get a significant move in one direction then i like to jump in with the trend with a swing position. If its only a minor volatility expansion then expect to fade the move - however i only play the clear ones. For instance we had the weak jobs report, clear big downside and im sure a lot of countertrender coming in to catch the quick retrace points. I positioned myself short in such a case in my swing account expecting the move to continue dring RTH.
Getting bearish now, but still waiting for Ben to talk at 10 before getting in on any positions. 60 min bar looking very bearish as of now. And breakdown from the wedge not yet confirmed. Again im not worried about missing any move as im more concerned with executing my plan fully. My win ratio has not been great as of late but i use very tight stops. The winners are usually 2.5x risk so that is what my edge is based on. I would be happy with a win ratio of 40-50% as i stastically get a 10x risk or 15x risk 2-4 times a month. My problem comes from taking trades which are not part of my plan, so these skew my results.