Discussion in 'Economics' started by SteveM, Feb 14, 2018.
This week's cover:
Commercial longs in the 10 year have been building....
Close to a short-term bottom in bonds?
Yup to your nope.
I think the long bond yields will move from 3% to 4% and higher like butter (in time) so, bond bloodbath ? 1994?
My WAG(guess) would be steeper , with a behind curve fed tightening it may take a while to slow down rates further out.
Maybe fed balance sheet ops contribute to bond selloffs as well even though the pace is much , much smaller than QE pace.
Rhetorical, and aside from flight/capital preservation .....is there an appetite to purchase long duration treasuries at 3 % in the face of massive federal deficits projected ...when 4% or higher in the 20 year bond is in the tea leaves.....or hold USD?
Stocks may appear good,relatively speaking for some time here until they dont.
differing opinions make a market.
The question was "close to SHORT TERM bottom in bonds". Your giving long term views, I been short Financials since 2012 and many rollovers/hedging, but when my trading models are buying call options to hedge my short financials, it is not seeking a bottom long term, it is expecting a bounce charting wise and if deep enough rise will trigger more long term shorting financials/hedged. I am so glad I am don't do much fundamentals, although decent in reading stocks fundamentals, what governments say they do is long way in what they actually do. Didn't take much figure out the Democrats wanted to keep interests low so they didn't have to pay higher to borrow money to throw away, as they really don't care who has to eventually pay it back and deal with higher rates.
Since corporations have huge cut in taxes, it be a few years before they can ramp up some newer business in USA, so in mean time companies that were going to shut down cause of not being able to sell their products because trade is unfair will have to continue. I think stock/hedged market looks very good for time being under the watch of President Trump.
Hmm. Another tumultuous week ahead?
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