well, it's not that simple. Earth gets basically all its warming from cosmic rays (excepting nuclear energy), the concern is that not enough is leaving at the same rate as it once did in the past. Releasing thermal energy of hydrocarbons should be miniscule in comparison to our solar gain. Technically it's a wash since it's energy that was sunk into ancient organisms and you're just re-releasing (and radiating into space)....the rate of which can be argued over. So the argument that "it's the sun stupid" has of course merit, I just refuse to believe we don't have the best cosmologists on earth addressing/peer reviewing the issues Shaviv presents, which as far as I can tell is increased solar activity. To me the problem is incredibly complex (modeling earth's atmosphere) and incredibly simple at the same time. You've got a closed system (a snow globe) that you're shining an incandescent light on. You then have changed the glass's composition and are trapping more of that heat radiating from the surfaces inside it. The question I see presented from skeptics boils to: is my flashlight flickering or not? Have I accounted for the flickering and/or battery voltage variation? To me, the simpler question is, is CO2 in the atmosphere in sufficient concentration to increase the greenhouse effect?
See, in particular, papers #54, #62,#65 among Shaviv's refereed papers in his vita below: The "testing " is continuing as I type this. Nir J. Shaviv Curriculum Vitae, December 2016 General Information e-mail: shaviv_nospam@phys.huji.ac.il (remove the _nospam!) Address: Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University Giv'at Ram, Jerusalem 91904, Israel Fax: +972-2-561 1519 Tel: +972-2-658 5807 Office: 102 Kaplun Building Birth: Ithaca NY, 1972. Current and Previous Academic Positions 2014-2015 Member, IBM Einstein Fellow, School of Natural Sciences, The Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton 2012- Full Professor, Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 2006-2012 Associate Professor, Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 2001-2006 Senior Lecturer, Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 1999-2001 Post doctoral fellow at CITA - The Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysicsi, University of Toronto 1996-1999 Lee DuBridge Prize Fellow at TAPIR - Theoretical Astrophysics Group, Caltech - California Institute of Technology 1993-1996 Teaching Assistant and Graduate Student at the Department of Physics, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology 1990-1993 Military Service in the IDF and graduate student from 1992. Non- Academic Positions 2015-2019 Chairman, Racah Institute of Physics 2010-2014 Chairman of the National Coordinating Council of Faculty Unions 2008-2014 Chairman and vice-Chairman of the Hebrew University Faculty Union 1990-1993 Military Service in the IDF (Intelligence Corps, Unit 8200) Education 1987-1990 Bachelor of Arts in Physics, Summa Cum Laude, at the Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel. (First in Class) 1992-1994 Master of Science in Physics, at the Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Israel. Thesis: "Pattern Formation in Astrophysical Media". Advisor: Prof. Oded Regev 1994-1996 Doctor of Science, at the Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Israel. Thesis: "The Origin of Gamma Ray Bursts". Advisor: Prof. Arnon Dar Teaching Experience Order of Magnitude Physics (Undergraduate Physics Majors) Classical Mechanics and Relativity (Freshman Physics) Continuum Mechanics (fluid mechanics and elasticity, undergraduate) Electricity, Magnetism and Optics for Biology Majors Introduction to Astrophysics & Cosmology (Undergraduate Physics Majors) Advanced Astrophysics (Stellar Structure and High energy, graduate level) "Workshop" for Etgar (honor) program (2nd year physics) Honors, Prizes and Awards 1995 Excelling teaching assistant (given by the Technion) 1996 Persistent excelling teaching assistant. 1996 The Wolf Award for excellence in PhD studies (nationally in Israel) 1996 Lee A. DuBridge Prize fellowship (Caltech) 2000 The Beatrice Tremaine Award (given by CITA) 2004 The Siegfried Samuel Wolf Lectureship in nuclear physics (HU) 2014 IBM Einstein Fellowship (Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton) Publications In Refereed Journals See also: ADS List Citations arXiv.org SPIRES Google Scholar C. Elphick, O. Regev, N. J. Shaviv, “Dynamics of Fronts in Thermally Bistable Fluids”, The Astrophysical Journal, 392, 106, 1992 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, “The Mass Distribution in a Merger Model”, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 412, L25, 1993 [ADS] V. Aharonson, O. Regev & N. J. Shaviv, “Pattern Evolution in Thermally Bistable Media”, The Astrophysical Journal, 426, 621, 1994 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & O. Regev, “Interface Dynamics and Domain Growth in Thermally Bistable Fluids”, Physical Review E, 50, 2048, 1994 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & A. Dar, “Gamma Ray Bursts from Minijets”, The Astrophysical Journal, 447, 863, 1995 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, “The Galaxy Mass Distribution in a Collapsing Spherical Cluster”, The Astrophysical Journal, 448, 514, 1995 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & A. Dar , “Fireballs in Dense Stellar Regions as an Explanation of Gamma-Ray Bursts”, Mon. Not. of the Royal Astr. Soc., 277, 287, 1995 [ADS] A. Dar & N. J. Shaviv, “The Extragalactic Neutrino Background Radiation from Blazars and Cosmic Rays”, Astroparticle Physics 4, 343, 1996 [ADS] A. Dar & N. J. Shaviv, “Origin of the High Energy Extragalactic Diffuse Gamma Ray Background”, Physical Review Lett., 75, 3052, 1995 [ADS] A. Dar & N. J. Shaviv, “Origin of the high Energy diffuse gamma-ray background - Reply”, Phys. Rev. Let. (Comments), 76, 3879, 1996 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, “Thermonuclear Reaction Rates in Dense Astrophysical Plasmas: I”, The Astrophysical Journal, 468, 433, 1996 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “The Eddington Luminosity in Multiphased Media”, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 494, 193, 1998 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “Can Nonlinear Structure Form at the Era of Decoupling?”, Mon. Not. of the Royal Astr. Soc., 297, 1245, 1998 [ADS] A. Dar, A. Laor & N. J. Shaviv, “Life extinctions by cosmic ray jets”, Physical Review Letters, 80, 5813, 1998 [ADS] Adelberger et al. (including N. J. Shaviv ), “Nuclear fusion cross-sections”, Reviews of Modern Physics, 70, 1265, 1998 (review) [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, J. S. & Y. Lithwick, “Magnetic Lensing near Ultramagnetized Neutron Stars”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 306, 333, 1999 [ADS] G. Shaviv & N. J. Shaviv, “Is there a Dynamical Effect in the Screening of Nuclear Reactions in Stellar Plasmas?”, The Astrophysical Journal, 529, 1054, 2000 [ADS] J. S. Heyl & N. J. Shaviv, “Polarization evolution in strong magnetric fields”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 311, 555, 2000 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “The Porous Atmosphere of η-Carinae”, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 532, L137, 2000 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “The Nature of Instabilities in Radiatively supported Thomson Atmospheres”, The Astrophysical Journal, 549, 1093, 2001 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “The Theory of Steady State Super Eddington Winds and its Application to Novae”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 326, 126, 2001 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, “Dynamic Screening Corrections to the Nuclear Reactions in the Sun”, The Astrophysical Journal, 558, 925, 2001 [ADS] J. S. Heyl & N. J. Shaviv, “QED and the High Polarization of the Thermal Radiation from Neutron Stars”, Physical Review D, 66, 023002, 2002 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites and a possible Climatic Connection”, Physical Review Letters, 89, 051102, 2002 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “The Spiral Structure of the Milky Way, Cosmic-Rays and Ice-Age Epochs on Earth”, New Astronomy, 8, 39, 2003 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, “The State of Be7 in the Core of the Sun and the Solar Neutrino Flux”, Mon. Not. Roy. Astr. Soc., 341, 119, 2003 [ADS] J. S. Heyl, N. J. Shaviv & D. Lloyd, “The High-Energy Polarization-Limiting Radius of Neutron Star Magnetospheres: I. Slowly Rotating Neutron Stars”, Mon. Not. Roy. Astr. Soc., 342, 134, 2003 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv & J. Veizer, “Celestial Driver of Phanerozoic Climate?”, GSA Today, 13, July, 4-10, 2003 [GSA Site] N. J. Shaviv & J. Veizer, “Comments on ‘Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide and climate’ by Royer et al.”, GSA Today, 14, 18, 2004. [pdf] N. J. Shaviv & J. Veizer, “Comments on ‘Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide and climate’ by Rahmstorf et al.”, EOS Trans. AGU, 85, 511, 2004. [pdf] G. Shaviv, N. J. Shaviv, “Why the Salpeter approximation is not valid in the Sun” , J. Physics A., 36, 6187, 2003 [ads] N. J. Shaviv, “Toward a Solution to the Faint Sun Paradox – A Lower Cosmic Ray flux from a Stronger Solar Wind”, J. Geophys. Res.–Space Phys., 108 (A12), 1437, doi:10.1029 / 2003JA009997, 2003 [ADS] S. P. Owocki, K. G. Gayley & N. J. Shaviv , “A Power Law Porosity Formalism for Continuum-Driven Mass Loss from Stars above the Eddington Limit”, The Astrophys. Journal, 616, 525, 2004 [ADS] T. Piran & N. J. Shaviv, “The Low Mass Progenitor of the Binary Pulsar J0737-3039B – Evidence for a New Type of Stellar Collapse”, Phys. Rev. Lett., 94, 051102, 2005 [ADS] N. J. Shaviv, “On Climate Response to Changes in the Cosmic Ray Flux and Radiative Budget”, J. Geophys. Res.–Space Phys., 110 (A8), A08105, doi:10.1029 / 2004JA010866, 2005 [ADS] K. Scherer, H. Fichtner, T. Borrmann, J. Beer, L. Desorgher, E. Flükiger, H.-J. Fahr, S. E. S. Ferreira, U. W. Langner, M. S. Potgieter, B. Heber, J. Masarik, N. J. Shaviv, J. Veizer, “Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate”, Sp. Sci. Rev., 127, 327–465, 2006. S. Naoz & N. J. Shaviv, “ Open Cluster Birth Analysis and Multiple Spiral Arm Sets in the Milky Way”, New Astron., 12, 410, 2007. [ads] [pdf] A.-J. van Marle, S. P. Owocki, & N. J. Shaviv, “Numerical Simulations of Continuum Driven Winds of Super-Eddington Stars”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 389, 1353-1359, 2008. [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, “Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing”, J. Geophys. Res.–Space Phys., 113 (A11), A11101, doi:10.1029 / 2007JA012989, 2008. [pdf] A.-J. van Marle, S. P. Owocki, & N. J. Shaviv, “On the behavior of stellar winds that exceed the photon-tiring limit”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 394, 595-604, 2009. [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, T. Piran & E. Nakar, “Inhomogeneity in the Supernova Remnant Distribution as the Origin of the PAMELA Anomaly”, Phys. Rev. Lett., 108, issue 11, id. 111302, doi:10.1103 / PhysRevLett.103.111302, 2009 [pdf] C. Dotan, E. M. Rossi & N. J. Shaviv, “A Lower Limit on the Halo Mass to form Supermassive Black Holes”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 417, 3035, 2011 [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, R. Wehrse, & G. Shaviv, “The maximal runaway temperature of Earth-like planets”, Icarus, 216, 403, 2011 [pdf] C. Dotan, & N. J. Shaviv, “Super-Eddington slim accretion discs with winds”, Mon. Not. of the Roy. Ast. Soc., 413, 1623. [pdf] S. Ziskin, N. J. Shaviv, “Quantifying the Role of Solar Radiative Forcing over the 20th Century”, Advances in Space Research, 50, 762, 2011 [pdf] C. Dotan, & N. J. Shaviv, “The Super-Eddington Nature of Super-Massive Stars”, to appear in MNRAS [arXiv] T. Shacham, & N. J. Shaviv, “On Continuum-driven Winds from Rotating Stars”, Astrophys. J., 757, 191, 2012 [pdf] E. O. Ofek, M. Sullivan, S. B. Cenko, M. M. Kasliwal, A. Gal-Yam, S. R. Kulkarni, I. Arcavi, L. Bildsten, J. Bloom, A. Howell, A. Filippenko, R. Laher, D. Levitan, E. Nakar, P. E. Nugent, B. Sesar, J. Silverman, N. J. Shaviv4, J. Surace, O. Yaron, "An outburst from a SN progenitor one month prior to explosion", Nature, 494, 65-67, 2013 [arXiv] [ads] Ofer M. Springer & Nir J. Shaviv "Asteroseismic effects in close binary stars" MNRAS 434, 1869, 2013 [pdf] [ads] Irit Idan, Nir J. Shaviv, Giora Shaviv "The Fate of a WD Accreting H-Rich Material at High Rates" MNRAS 433, 2884, 2013 [arXiv] [pdf] [ads] Simone Dall’Osso, Tsvi Piran, Nir J. Shaviv, “Binary Pulsar J0737-3039 – Evidence for a new core collapse and neutron star formation mechanism” MNRAS 438, 1005, 2014 [arXiv] [ads] David Benyamin, Ehud Nakar, Tsvi Piran, Nir J. Shaviv, “Recovering the observed B/C ratio in a dynamic spiral-armed cosmic ray model", Astrophys. J. 782, 34 [arXiv] [ads] E. O. Ofek, M. Sullivan, N. J. Shaviv, A. Steinbok, I. Arcavi, A. Gal-Yam, D. Tal, S. R. Kulkarni, P. E. Nugent, S. Ben-Ami, M. M. Kasliwal, S. Cenko, S. Bradley; R. Laher, J. Surace, J. S. Bloom, A. V. Filippenko, J. M. Silverman, O. Yaron, "Precursors Prior to Type IIn Supernova Explosions are Common: Precursor Rates, Properties, and Correlations" Astrophysical Journal, 789, 104, 2014 [ads] Nir J Shaviv, Andreas Prokoph, Ján Veizer, "Is the Solar System's Galactic Motion Imprinted in the Phanerozoic Climate?" Scientific Reports 4, article 6150, 2014 ( doi:10.1038/srep06150) [nature] D. Howard, H. Svensmark, N. J. Shaviv, "The Solar and Southern Oscillation Components in the Satellite Altimetry Data" J. Geophys. Res., DOI: 10.1002/2014JA020732 [ads] Ben Margalit, Nir J. Shaviv, "Constraining MOND Using the Vertical Motion of Stars in the Solar Neighborhood", Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 456 (2), 1163-1171 [ads] N. L. Strotjohann, E. O. Ofek, A. Gal-Yam, M. Sullivan, S. R. Kulkarni, N. J. Shaviv, C. Fremling, M. M. Kasliwal, P. E. Nugent, Y. Cao, I. Arcavi, J. Sollerman, A. V. Filippenko, R. Laher, J. Surace, "Absence of Precursor Eruptions Prior to Type IIb Supernovae", The Astrophysical Journal 811 (2), 117 [ads] N. Smith, N. J. Shaviv, H. Svensmark, "Approximate analytical solutions to the condensation/coagulation equation of aerosols", Aerosol Science & Technology, 2015 [ads] E. O. Ofek, S. B. Cenko, N. J. Shaviv, G. Duggan, N.-L. Strotjohann, A. Rubin, S. R. Kulkarni, A. Gal-Yam, M. Sullivan, Y. Cao, P. E. Nugent, M. M. Kasliwa, J. Sollerman, C. Fransson, A. V. Filippenko, D. A. Perley, O. Yaron, and R. Laher PTF13efv - An outburst 500 days prior to the SNhunt 275 Explosion and its radiative efficiency, The Astrophys. J. 824, 6, 2016 [ads] David Benyamin, Ehud Nakar, Tsvi Piran, Nir J. Shaviv, "The B/C and sub-Iron/Iron Cosmic ray ratios - further evidence in favor of the spiral arm diffusion model", [arXiv] Nir J. Shaviv, "A Kinematic Spiral Arm Shock Signature: 'Ringing' in the Vertical Motion of the Stars", submitted to MNRAS [arXiv] Nir J. Shaviv, "The Paleoclimatic evidence for Strongly Interacting Dark Matter Present in the Galactic Disk", submitted to PRL [arXiv] Stanley P. Owocki, Nir J. Shaviv, "The Spectral Temperature of Optically Thick Outflows with Application to Light Echo Spectra from η Carinae's Giant Eruption", MNRAS, 462, 345, 2016 [ads] Lara Nava, David Benyamin, Tsvi Piran, Nir J. Shaviv, "Spectral map of the diffuse γ-ray emission from π0-decay in a dynamic spiral arm model: comparison with observations", Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. [MNRAS] Jacob Svensmark, Martin B. Enghoff, Nir J. Shaviv, and Henrik Svensmark, "The response of clouds and aerosols to cosmic ray decreases", to appear in J. Geophys. Res.–Space. [JGR-Space] S. P. Owocki, & N. J. Shaviv, “Instabilty & Evolution Near the Eddington Limit”, in “Eta Carinae and the Supernova Impostors”, edited by K. Davidson & R. Humphreys, to be published by Springer (invited review chapter) [ads] [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, Die Rolle der Sonne im Klimawandel des 20 Jahrhunderts, in “Die kalte Sonne”, edited by F. Vahrenholt & S. Lüning. Hoffmann und Campe Verlag, 2012. [translation] G. Shaviv, S. Bressler, S., N. J. Shaviv, “The habitable zone and the generalized greenhouse effect” in “Habitability of other planets and satellites”, eds. de Vera & Seckbach, Springer, 2012 Conference Proceedings O. Regev & N. J. Shaviv, "Pattern Formation and Evolution in Astrophysical Fluids". Acta Physica Polonica, 1994, 25, 1005. (Presented at "The Sixth Symposium on Statistical Physics" Zakopane, Poland, Sept. 1993. N. J. Shaviv, "Inquisitive Correlations in the BATSE gamma-Ray Burst Data", in "The gamma-ray sky with COMTON GRO and SIGMA", eds. M. Signore et al., (Kluwer: Dordrecht), p. 395., 1995. N. J. Shaviv, "A GRB Model Satisfying Stringent Observational Constraints" in the proceedings of the ESA conference: "Towards the Source of Gamma Ray Bursts", Noordwijk, 1995: Astrophys. & Space Science, 231 (1-2) p. 445, 1995. N. J. Shaviv & Shaviv G., "The galaxy mass distribution from mergers in a collapsing spherical cluster", IAU SYMP (171) 444, 1996. N. J. Shaviv & Dar A, "Solution To The Gamma Ray Burst Mystery?", at the proceedings of VIIIth Rencontre De Blois, "Neutrinos and Dark Matter In The Universe'', June 6-12, 1996 N.J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, "Screening of Nuclear Reactions in Stars", in the proceedings of "White Dwarfs", ed. J. Isern, M.Hernanz & E.Garcia-Berro (Kluwer), 1996. Dar A., Laor A., & Shaviv N. J., "Life Extinctions By Cosmic Ray Bursts", in the Proceedings of the XXII Rencontre de Moriond, Les Arcs, France, 1997, and in "Results and Perspectives in ParticlePhysics" Proceedings of the 1997 Rencontre de la Valee d'Aosta, Italy, 1997. N.J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, "How to calculate the Screening of Nuclear Reactions in Stars", Proc. "Strongly coupled Plasmas", ed. G.Kalman & M., Boston, 1997 Shaviv N. J., "The Instability of Radiative Flows: From the Early Universe to the Eddington Luminosity Limit", Physics Reports 311, 177-185, 1999. (Proceedings of "Astrophysical fluids from atomic nuclei to stars and galaxies", Haifa, Israel, Jan 1998. Shaviv G. & Shaviv N. J., "Is there a dynamic effect in the screening of nuclear reactions in stellar plasmas?" Physics Reports 311, 99-114, 1999. (Proceedings of "Astrophysical fluids from atomic nuclei to stars and galaxies", Haifa, Israel, Jan 1998. Shaviv N. J., "Extremely Luminous Atmospheres", in the proceedings of "IAU Coll. 169: Variable and non-spherical stellar winds in luminous hot stars", Heidelberg, Germany, June 1998. Shaviv N. J. "Striking nonlinear mode coupling in the CMBR", in the proc. of "The 19th Texas Symp. on Relativistic Astrophysics", Paris, France, December 1998. [pdf] Heyl J. S., Shaviv N. J., Lithwick Y., "The Optics of Neutron-Star Magnetospheres", in the proceedings of the AAS HEAD Division Meeting 1999, Charleston, South Carolina, April 1999 Shaviv G., Shaviv N. J. "The controversy over the electrostatic screening of nuclear reactions in stellar plasmas" (invited), in the proceedings of "Frontier Objects in Astrophysics and Particle Physics", Vulcano, Italy, June 2000. Shaviv G., Shaviv N. J. "Deriving the Electrostatic Screening of Nuclear Reactions from first Principles", in the proceedings of "Nuclei in the Cosmos", 2000, Arhus, Denmark, July 2000. Shaviv N. J. "The Winds of Super Eddington Atmospheres", in the proceedings the International Workshop on "Winds from Massive Stars", Îles de la Madeleine, Québec, Canada, July 2000 [pdf] Shaviv, N. J., Shaviv G., "Electrostatic Screening of Nuclear Reactions" (invited), In the proceedings of "Hot Points in Astrophysics", JINR, Dubna, Russia, August 2000. Shaviv, N. J., “Super-Eddington Atmospheres and their Winds” in Gansicke, B., Beuermann, K., Reinsch, K., eds., “The physics of cataclysmic variables and related objects”, Proceedings of conference, Goettingen, ASP Conference Series, 2001 [ADS, pdf] Heyl, J. S., Shaviv, N. J., “What Could Polarimetry tell us about Neutron Stars?” in “Two years of Science with Chandra”, Symposium held in Washington DC, September 2001 [ADS] Shaviv, N. J., “Classical Novae as Super Eddington Objects” in Hernanz, M., José, J., eds., “Classical Nova Explosions: International Conference on Classical Nova Explosions”, Proceedings of conference in Sitges, Spain, AIP 2002 [pdf] Shaviv, N. J., “Cosmic Rays Diffusion in the dynamic Milky Way: Model, Measurement and Terrestrial Effects” in the “International School of Cosmic Ray Astrophysics”, Erice, Italy, June 2002. (invited) [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, “Climate Change and the Cosmic Ray Connection”, in “International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies – 30thsession”, Erice, Italy, August 2003. (Ed. R. Ragaini, World Scientific, 2004) (invited) N. J. Shaviv & G. Shaviv, “The state of Be7 in the solar core”, Leiden workshop on nuclear reactions, June 2004. (invited) N. J. Shaviv, “Exceeding the Eddington Limit”, in proceedings of “The fate of the most massive stars”, Grand Teton Natl. Park, May 2004. (invited) [ADS, pdf] N. J. Shaviv, “The Cosmic Ray / Climate Connection”, to appear in Int. J. Mod. Phys.-A., in proceedings of “The 19th European Symposium on Cosmic Rays”, Florence, September 2004. (invited) S. Naoz & N. J. Shaviv, “The dynamics of the Sagitarius-Carina spiral arm” in the “International School of Cosmic Ray Astrophysics”, Erice, Italy, June 2004. N. J. Shaviv, “On the Link Between Cosmic Rays and Terrestrial Climate”, Int. J. Mod. Phys.-A., 20, 666, 2005. [ads] N. J. Shaviv, & G. Shaviv, "The state of beryllium in the Sun and the possibility of sterile neutrinos", in “Frontier Objects in Astrophysics and Particle Physics, Vulcano Workshop 2006”, Eds. F. Giovannelli & G. Mannocchi., p. 531 [ads] N. J. Shaviv, “Long-term cosmic ray exposure of Earth”, in the proceedings of “Heliophysics: The Sun, The Heliosphere and the Earth”, Bad Honnef, Germany, May 2007. A. J. van Marle, S. P. Owocki, N. J. Shaviv, “Continuum-Driven Winds from Super-Eddington Stars: A Tale of Two Limits”, in “FIRST STARS III Conference”, AIP Conference Proceedings, 990, 250-253 (2008). [ads] T. Piran, N. J. Shaviv & E. Nakar, “Inhomogeneity in the Supernova Remnant Distribution as a natural explanation of the PAMEALA/ATIC Observations”, In proceedings of Recontres de Moriond 2009 Very High Energy Phenomena in the Universe, Les Arcs, France, 2009. [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, & C. Dotan, “On the Appearance of Super-Eddington States in Various Astrophysical Systems”, in Memorie della Società Astronomica Italiana, Vol. 81, p. 350, 2010 [pdf] G. Shaviv, N. J. Shaviv, & R. Wehrse, “CO2 cools or heats?", in Memorie della Società Astronomica Italiana, Vol. 81, p. 494, 2010 [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, “The Climatic role of the Sun—How, how much, and what does it mean?”, in “2010 World Federation of Scientists International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies ” (World Scientific, 2011) [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, “The Role of the Solar Forcing in the 20th century climate change”, to appear in “2011 World Federation of Scientists International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies ” (World Scientific, 2012) [pdf] N. J. Shaviv, C. Dotan, “Classical Novae as Super-Eddington Steady States”, to appear in the proceedings of the “Palermo Workshop 2011: The Golden Age of Cataclysmic Variables and Related Objects”, ed. F. Giovannelli. [pdf] S. Bressler, N. J. Shaviv, G. Shaviv, “The Sensitivity of the Greenhouse Effect to Changes in the Concentration of Gases in Planetary Atmospheres”, ed. F. Giovannelli. [pdf] I. Idan, N. J. Shaviv, and G. Shaviv, “The Fate of a WD Accreting H-Rich Mate- rial at High Rates”, in proceedings of “Nuclear Physics in Astrophysics V”, Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 337, 012051 [ads]
I think we need to study the weather from the 1930's Let figure out how we solved the record warming of that decade Before there was global warming, there were the dust bowl years of the 1930s, also known as "The Dirty Thirties." The record-setting heat waves and drought of the 1930s occurred during the middle of the Great Depression and contributed to the economic hardship felt throughout the nation. They also occurred when most people did not have the comfort of air conditioning and many heat-related deaths were reported. Two years during that decade were particularly hot for our region, 1930 and 1936. Those two years set heat records in Washington which still stand today.
My reading is saying solar activity is in decline presently, and that we might be cooling in "other" circumstances.
Appeal to authority, which is fine, but sorely lacking given how many other scientists disagree with the cosmic rays hypothesis.
Yes of course, but are those the cosmic rays Shiviv is referring to wholly? No. He's leaning on ooky spooky rays that have to be measured at three levels of removal and deduction.
I'm finding it difficult to locate these many negative critiques you mention, which is odd since there are "[so] many". Perhaps you can give me a link or two. Thanks. I did find this brief blurb from four years ago. A review of the original report in Nature Communications that will in all likelihood result in a shared Nobel Prize for H. Svensmark, Enghoff, Shaviv, and J. Svensmark once the other climate (the political one) changes. Science News from research organizations The missing link between exploding stars, clouds, and climate on Earth Breakthrough in understanding of how cosmic rays from supernovae can influence Earth's cloud cover and thereby climate Date: December 19, 2017 Source: Technical University of Denmark Summary: The study reveals how atmospheric ions, produced by the energetic cosmic rays raining down through the atmosphere, helps the growth and formation of cloud condensation nuclei -- the seeds necessary for forming clouds in the atmosphere. Share: FULL STORY The study reveals how atmospheric ions, produced by the energetic cosmic rays raining down through the atmosphere, helps the growth and formation of cloud condensation nuclei -- the seeds necessary for forming clouds in the atmosphere. When the ionization in the atmosphere changes, the number of cloud condensation nuclei changes affecting the properties of clouds. More cloud condensation nuclei mean more clouds and a colder climate, and vice versa. Since clouds are essential for the amount of Solar energy reaching the surface of Earth the implications can be significant for our understanding of why climate has varied in the past and also for future climate changes. Cloud condensation nuclei can be formed by the growth of small molecular clusters called aerosols. It has until now been assumed that additional small aerosols would not grow and become cloud condensation nuclei, since no mechanism was known to achieve this. The new results reveal, both theoretically and experimentally, how interactions between ions and aerosols can accelerate the growth by adding material to the small aerosols and thereby help them survive to become cloud condensation nuclei. It gives a physical foundation to the large body of empirical evidence showing that Solar activity plays a role in variations in Earth's climate. For example, the Medieval Warm Period around year 1000 AD and the cold period in the Little Ice Age 1300-1900 AD both fits with changes in Solar activity. "Finally we have the last piece of the puzzle explaining how particles from space affect climate on Earth. It gives an understanding of how changes caused by Solar activity or by super nova activity can change climate." says Henrik Svensmark, from DTU Space at the Technical University of Denmark, lead author of the study. Co-authors are senior researcher Martin Bødker Enghoff (DTU Space), Professor Nir Shaviv (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), and Jacob Svensmark, (University of Copenhagen). The new study The fundamental new idea in the study is to include a contribution to growth of aerosols by the mass of the ions. Although the ions are not the most numerous constituents in the atmosphere the electro-magnetic interactions between ions and aerosols compensate for the scarcity and make fusion between ions and aerosols much more likely. Even at low ionization levels about 5% of the growth rate of aerosols is due to ions. In the case of a nearby super nova the effect can be more than 50% of the growth rate, which will have an impact on the clouds and the Earth's temperature. To achieve the results a theoretical description of the interactions between ions and aerosols was formulated along with an expression for the growth rate of the aerosols. The ideas were then tested experimentally in a large cloud chamber. Due to experimental constraints caused by the presence of chamber walls, the change in growth rate that had to be measured was of the order 1%, which poses a high demand on stability during the experiments, and experiments were repeated up to 100 times in order to obtain a good signal relative to unwanted fluctuations. Data was taken over a period of 2 years with total 3100 hours of data sampling. The results of the experiments agreed with the theoretical predictions. The hypothesis in a nutshell Cosmic rays, high-energy particles raining down from exploded stars, knock electrons out of air molecules. This produces ions, that is, positive and negative molecules in the atmosphere. The ions help aerosols -- clusters of mainly sulphuric acid and water molecules -- to form and become stable against evaporation. This process is called nucleation. The small aerosols need to grow nearly a million times in mass in order to have an effect on clouds. The second role of ions is that they accelerate the growth of the small aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei -- seeds on which liquid water droplets form to make clouds. The more ions the more aerosols become cloud condensation nuclei. It is this second property of ions which is the new result published in Nature Communications. Low clouds made with liquid water droplets cool the Earth's surface. Variations in the Sun's magnetic activity alter the influx of cosmic rays to the Earth. When the Sun is lazy, magnetically speaking, there are more cosmic rays and more low clouds, and the world is cooler. When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up. The implications of the study suggests that the mechanism can have affected: The climate changes observed during the 20th century The coolings and warmings of around 2oC that have occurred repeatedly over the past 10,000 years, as the Sun's activity and the cosmic ray influx have varied. The much larger variations of up to 10oC occuring as the Sun and Earth travel through the Galaxy visiting regions with varying numbers of exploding stars. Story Source: Materials provided by Technical University of Denmark. Note: Content may be edited for style and length. Journal Reference: H. Svensmark, M. B. Enghoff, N. J. Shaviv, J. Svensmark. Increased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei. Nature Communications, 2017; 8 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02082-2 Cite This Page: MLA APA Chicago Technical University of Denmark. "The missing link between exploding stars, clouds, and climate on Earth: Breakthrough in understanding of how cosmic rays from supernovae can influence Earth's cloud cover and thereby climate." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 19 December 2017. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171219091320.htm>.
I won't shit on your heroes too much, but a youtube search for Shaviv rendered speeches for the following (mind you these are not reposts by the following but speeches/Q&A's for them). The Heartland Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heartland_Institute#Climate_change Friends of Science: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friends_of_Science Independent Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Institute#Climate_change Europäisches Institut für Klima & Energie: https://www.desmog.com/european-institute-climate-and-energy/ If you want a serious dissection of Shaviv's claims, I recommend the physics forums. At this point I've stopped caring to go down this rabbit hole myself: https://www.physicsforums.com/search/4016290/?q=shaviv&o=relevance
google string suggestion "nir shaviv is wrong". Easy. It doesn't matter. Scientists, government, now business, all are accepting the consensus and taking action on it, whatever its cause. Shaviv is irrelevant until he can show a much larger effect.
Hearland Institute... libertarians. Motivated reasoners. Taxes are wrong, therefore anything which requires the raising of taxes is wrong.