Sorry for the delay Steve. My stuff is so simple it will probably disappoint you. The idea of the speed of the bar sounds pretty interesting. I have never used it per se, although if I am watching a bar and price rises very very quickly on relatively light volume, I figure it is going to come back and trade in that area again pretty soon. The MACD is on all of my charts. I use it in a number of ways.... none of which work all the time. When the MACD is at a relatively extreme value, I look for price to reverse. Extreme being relative to that stock. If price moves sideways while the MACD is moving back towards zero, I start looking for a continuation of the trend. I also use MACD for divergences and it is a nice little volatility indicator. Many times the indicator will slowly decrease in amplitude as it oscillates above and below the zero line until it is almost a flat line. For someone like me who loves the consolidation-expansion cycle, this pattern tells me that the volatility has been rung out of the stock and thus something is about to happen. Re: the stop. I want sound principles to guide the trade, ie., price taking out the low of the previous bar, or price breaking thru a pattern boundary. So if abiding by those sound principles is going to cause me to lose more than .45 on the trade, then I will either reject the trade, or decide if the risk presented is acceptable. That is for charts less than Daily. Daily charts get a larger amount of wiggle room, maybe up to .90. I hate to lose, and the cost of doing biz is so cheap anymore that I'd rather get out quickly and re-assess. Drawing boundary lines following reversals is specific to the trade where I have entered using price crossing a moving average. As such, there will not be congestion/consolidation yet. What happens is the price crosses the average and closes and I get in. Then price reverses and closes below the average and I reverse. Then price reverses again {whipsaw} closng back above the average but not above the high of the bar I entered long the first time. So I get out and wait. I have drawn boundaries using the reversal points, and many times the price will now consolidte within those local boundaries for several periods and then break. With consolidation patterns like the slim jim or the geometric patterns, the boundaries are drawn after the consolidation has been occurring. So to answer that question specifically, the boundaries are drawn outside the congestion. Those slim jims, especially on the YM as I look back, have such narrow ranges that just drawing a boundary above and below the hgihs and lows respectively should be all you need. I don't much care for the MACD on 5 minute and shorter charts, so I wouldn't use it. But that's me. You have very tight range now with boundaries for reference. Hag's would have you enter with 2 cars and look for a profit target of 2-3x your risk. No rocket science there. He is looking for a one way trade since his work has shown that the slim jim is highly predictive of a continuation move. Once you reach the first profit target you sell 1 car, move the stop up to breakeven, and continue to march with the remaining car... applying sound trading principles as you go.
In, If the price races up to the boundary, it may be tough at that time to determine the relative volume. There obviously would have to be some sort of relative increase while that's happening, but if it fails and drops back into congestion I think retro you could confirm with volume something price as already provided. If I'm wrong and there is no decernable change in V then selling resistance would be a slam dunk. Probably should just wait for it to blast out then buy the 20ema retrace on the 3min or 5min. Would Wycoff stuff apply to a 5min chart? Is his stuff fractal? Thrusts and springs and shakeouts and spikes would come to mind? On your moving average breakout play, what's the length and time frame? Do u use it on every cross? How do you filter? TIA steve
Consolidation? At some point that thing is going to break up or down. Forget telling us its in consolidation. Tell us what your fancy Tradestation voodoo indicators tell you what the future direction is. Don't be a story teller based on the past. Anyone can do that.
EtfTraderLives Some systems arnt based on predicting what direction the market will go..thats the perk of consolidation trades..you Dont care what way it goes..as long as it goes.
This is the quintessential quote illustrating a desire for the Holy Grail. Within the context of the first two sentences this trader has at his disposal a strategy that can be used to make a lot of money. The problem is he doesn't recognize it because he is blinded by his desire to find the Holy Grail, ie., a method that requires no work and makes money every time. Hopefully this trader and all of those who share the same thought process recognize sooner than later that there is no Holy Grail, that trading takes ongoing education and work, and that profitable strategies don't have to be paid for or proprietary.
"Hopefully this trader and all of those who share the same thought process recognize sooner than later that there is no Holy Grail, that trading takes ongoing education and work, and that profitable strategies don't have to be paid for or proprietary." you'd think that someone might look at these setups, and place a buy stop limit in one account, and a sell stop limit in the other account, and take whichever triggers first, possibly even simplifying to the point where the other trigger becomes the stop loss...so stops are within 1-1.5%, and profits are ... nah, that would be too simple...maybe i'll try that Tuesday as always, inand, nice job!!
BA revisited. I added some more information to this chart to highlight things like gaps refilling, resistance becoming support, increasing volume with consolidation breaks followed by decreasing volume during pullbacks. All of this stuff is widely-published, well-discussed, and easy to assimilate. And.... with charting programs like QCharts, you can scroll backwards on any time frame for stocks and futures, and test yourself... and the method... by scrolling forward again.