I had come to believe that I had seen it all technically wise in trading. In order not to stay be blasé from the technical side, I was curious to see if I could be proved wrong: that indeed there was something new under the sun. So please , tell us more.
Gringo, thanks for your advices I´m going to keep them in mind, and try to observe the price and the behavior of each market in order to start my own procces Db, thanks for your words and let me tell you that you have a great work and I admire it, is a privilege that you post in my thread, I hope you could keep me helping in this journey. About this thread for the moment I´m going to continue with the forward testing until I get the 100 trades in order to have more information to conclude about this market and maybe move forward with the NQ
You don't need forward testing to figure the nature of the market out. You can do back testing to see how the market behaved.
While I don't want to discourage you, until you've characterized your market (Appendix E), there's nothing to test, much less trade. You can draw lines and play-trade for years and end up with nothing. I suggest you begin posting charts along with your observations of what traders are doing without drawing any lines at all. Don't even think about your own entries and exits. Without a trading plan, you have nothing to trade. Without testing, you have no trading plan. Without observation and characterization, there's nothing to test.
In order to start with the process of characterization and observation, I will show you my work for the 18th of February, and the way how I read the price from the point of view of buyers and sellers. If you have any comment about it, please let me know. I also let the Image in blank (attached) if you want to give me an example of how you would analyze this day without regarding about entries and exits. I also want to mention that I had already noticed that 3 hours is enough time for me before lose the focus, so that´s the reason why I choose the trading time between (9 am – 12 m) (I apologize in advance for my English is not my native language). At the open: The Price Spike with the highest volume of the all day (retrospective) (1.752) First 10 minutes: Great activity and movement, and the incapability to give the confirmation of a retracement, situation that didn’t define the direction of the market Second 10 minutes: The price tries to go to the down side but is listless and end up on a little range Third 10 minutes: The price continues on a range of 8 ticks In retrospective the period of time analyzed (9 am- 12 m), was frame into a conjunction of a range and Hinges of different seizes with fake break outs; situation that create a volatile environment in the market. I also have a question... would it be the same,try to understand the nature of the CL eleven months ago when the macro context was a channel, and now, when the price is out of this channel on a downtrend? what do you think about it?
If you can continue to analyze charts in this way, you will have made a good beginning. Once you've done what you believe is a sufficient number, begin analyzing them in the same way via replay, i.e., without knowing what's going to happen next. If you are satisfied with your work in that step, then you can begin backtesting, which is where entrances and exits come in. The observation phase needn't take long depending on whether or not you can avoid thinking about how you would trade what you're looking at. If you can't avoid thinking about it, the task will take longer. Perhaps months. Even years. As to the macro, it will be necessary at some point, but it isn't necessary for the observation. You can pick any day at random and play it. Via replay you can do several sessions in one day. If you need a guide, there is only one person who is pursuing this who is going through the observation phase (finally). While he isn't doing it exactly as I would (too many lines), there is no one way to do it. The objective is to understand behavior; not everyone is going to meet that objective the same way in the same amount of time. If you're interested in his work, begin here: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...ce-action-via-sla.282101/page-21#post-4070878. If you benefit from what he's doing, it wouldn't be a bad idea for the two of you to talk to each other.
1 minute chart?!! Are you serious? ! Your just trading noise, do you even know what this is doing on the more dominant time frame?