It amazes me that so many people are trying to step in front of a freight train like crude oil. The skeletons of those that tried to call the top at $70, $80, $90, $100 litter the trading landscape. There is no stopping this crude oil freight train, the only way it will be stopped is if Bernanke gets ousted and a hawk like Fisher steps in, very unlikely. Either that or Volcker gets recalled. All with probabilities close to zero. Look for $150 crude sometime next year.
For what it's worth, the refinery capacity utilization was at a mere 83%, and was sitting at a 2.5 year low the week ended March 21st at 82%. It continues to amaze me how this Bull Market in crude is able to simply ignore the lack of demand coming from the refineries right now. Meanwhile, I believe there is a fibonacci target of $118
It amazes me that so many people are trying to catch a trend in CL. The daily range and the gyrations therein offer big points to traders every day. For the independent individual trader this is a daytraders market par excellence. Also you can utilize the often very juicy one and half hour premarket period, 8.30-10am as well. Admittedly CL is a fast paced market where in comparison YM and ES play in slow motion. It does mean that in CL as elsewhere you must have an accurate methodology. Your operating procedure needs to be well honed. This is a market where the spread can open out against you sometimes when you need to get your price order executed instantly - just in front of a sharp move. But again highly focussed practice teaches you how to work out the way to deal with the character of this market and have consistent success getting you trades done at the right place each time.
The market is fueld by fear and greed, it fueled by stupidity, mania and ignorance. Crude will go to 150-160 before "fundamentals kick-in". There is ample liquidity of one wants to speculate in food and energy.
Crude is now a dollar play. If fed cuts and Euro jumps to 1.75, "fundamentals" may push crude higher than 160.