everytime i think i've switched over to being a trend follower, we've got days like these that tempt me back into being contrarian and giving money back.
But wouldn't you agree that we're due for a bounce considering that we dropped for nearly 10 sessions nonstop? Be that as it may, I'm short myself. We'll see where she ends up come next Monday. My feeling is that we ain't done with this selloff yet.
Holy mackerel! I wasn't in a state of mind conducive to trading, so I went jogging to prevent myself from doing something stupid, like keeping on shorting a runaway market [Edit: not a reference to Schizo, I hadn't seen his post ] ... I just came back... thank goodness I left... Although then again I could have gone long at 1:00 EST @ 74.00! (I wouldn't have, EUR was falling and ES seemed to be going nowhere). Hope some of you nailed it today (or at least didn't get hurt), it was the kind of day that makes and breaks accounts left and right. I swear that I was going to get long at 72.31 (true) and that I would have held tight till the close (ahem)
I, too, know very much how to be a trend follower and could not get over the "damn, it sold off so hard it will reverse and retest that low at some point" mentality today. I had 7 short trades today (missed the good one during the speech), and could've simply gone long on any of the inviting entry points, walked away and come back to at least twice as much money if not more today. I was about to pull the long trigger after the breakout thru 73.75 when price had put in 73.95 and came back toward it and just watched it instead, run all the way to 74.31, where I then took a counter-trend short @ 73.92 for 20 ticks. Then there was the classic bull flag formation between 12:15pm and 1:10pm ET and I said to my friend, "The lower high and the close through the 20 EMA drew in the shorts. What is the absolute craziest thing CL could do out of this flag? Break next resistance through 75.00. We should go long here and target 75.00." (Price was around 74.10 at that moment.) I didn't do it! In fact, all I did was another counter trend short that showed 14 ticks and came right back to stop me out b/e and I STILL didn't go long! I'm going into therapy now.
Picaso, my fine fellow trader, shorting a runaway market is every bit as, if not more, aerobically challenging as jogging in terms of heart and breathing rates
Ha ha! This is exactly what I said to my Skype group when I emailed them my trades: "Here it is, if nothing else, an exercise in how to safely counter-trend trade." To be fair my early winner, the one that made more than 20 ticks, was fully with-trend. And if I hadn't chosen to avoid trading during Bernanke, I would've had a home run short on the break of the low!
$65 oil by october.? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp...tures-price-forecast-2010-08-29?siteid=YAHOOB