First , allow me to address BPtrader's response. While the price of oil is pegged to the dollar, the consumption isn't only limited to the children of Uncle Sam. The demand for oil consumption is a worldwide phenomenon, the rise mostly coming from China and other emerging markets. In that respect, you would think the freefall of the dollar should be good for other nations. However, that's not the case. This is largely because other nations depend on exporting to USA and in order to produce the goods for their rich neighbor in America they will need to also depend ever more on oil. As such, everything really boils down to American consumption. This is why the price of oil is pegged, for the moment, to the dollar. Until Americans run out of appetite for imports (namely, cheap labor), I doubt gold will replace the greenback. And as far as bridenour's comment is concerned, his concern wasn't so much about why the general consumers like his neighbors feel ripped off by rising oil prices especially in times of high unemployment but why he's getting killed by fading the rising tide. Macroeconomic reasons aside, he does have a point. I also think it's silly for this market to rise so rapidly. The damn thing goes up when the crude inventory is in shortage; it goes up when the inventory is in excess. It goes up when the dollar rises believing that a fatter wallet will spur spending; it goes up when the dollar dips because that will stimulate exports. Reasons are plenty for why the damn price moves the way it does. I would have hung myself if I had to listen to all those pundits with their sage "after-the-fact" advice. Let's not forget that the market can remain irrational just to the point you find yourself insolvent. This is particularly true these days when everything is more or less engineered by government interventions. Hence, don't ever fight the tape. Another factor to remember is that there is the so-called precedence that we went up as high as 140 last year. Why couldn't there be another repeat this year? Markets operate in cycles, particularly mental cycles. When you have enough morons that dictate how the markets should be governed, you will have a self-fulfilling prophecy. I kid you not.
Don't know how factual this is, been told there are 30 oil tankers parked near UK coast waiting for crude futures to rise. It's speculation driven, peak oil team etc.
Don't know how factual this is, been told there are 3 million CL contracts Japan Airlines is trying to liquidate to meet bankruptcy reorganization deadline next week. The majority of those contracts are short, etc.
Dudes, I'm holding 10 lots and you watch. The world will be a happier place thanks to my short! In truth, I don't think Uncle Sam and the world will just stand idly and watch the oil prices rise this time around. I don't think they can afford to. Not only will it dampen the economic growth but, more importantly, it just might kill the stock market. God forbid, we can't let that happen. :eek:
I wish you luck, but sometimes I think the folks piling into curde are paying for these pipeline attacks. We'll see if the market uses this attack to continue the push upward. It did occur Friday, so maybe this contributed to the move. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chevr...9.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
When the market does rise so rapidly you should not voice your opinion and you should question your own logic, what you need to do is listen, listen to what the chart is telling you. If the price does not belong up here the chart will tell you, unfortunately few wait for any confirmation.
The weak dollar argument is shite. Comparing the US to Zimbabwe is just silly. Anyway, the bottom line is that short oil is a bad gamble. There is absolutely nothing to suggest oil will go down. If anything, there is huge risk to the upside if there ends up being any serious increase in demand (or news suggestion as much). Crude is overvalued, no question. But it might stay overvalued. Going to close my short positions on Monday except I will hold my SCO until the stop point since that trade was system-based.
CL with new highs... I hope you get out of that short position without too much harm. What's your average price for the 10 lots?
options expiry this week any guess to the range? I see70-72 low high 85-87 high and trading in daily 3 dollar ranges. My point of view is that nothing is constant. The dollar can go up or down and cl and the futures are run together. High inventory and we still run, gold up or down it does not follow what should cause some reation. I am now playing cl in a 1.50 range with looking to not have more than 5 contacts in each month. looks like another crazy week based upon where we are already Sunday.