bearish: econ fundamentals, rising inventories, slowing china bullish: fed policy, inflation, weak dollar, rising equities =========INCREASED AND CONTINUAL VOLITILITY: BETTER TAKE YOUR PROFITS AND NOT GET MARRIED TO ANY POSITIONS OR LONG TERM VIEWS RIGHT HERE!
Its all good, post away, thats how we all learn. schizo rules - UPDATE 1 7a) Opening Trades: From now on, all opening trades MUST be posted in realtime. No exception. 7b) Closing Trades: Likewise, it is advisable that all closing trades be posted in realtime with one exception: If you feel that you will not be physically available to post the trades, you MUST post your stop at the time of your entry. 8) Paper Trades: Without sounding too coy, I'm going to opt for a "dont ask, don't tell" policy on this matter. However, there is nothing wrong with paper trading per se. Nor should anyone feel ashamed about it. Paper trading is a great way for beginners to learn the ropes. Be that as it may, paper traders MUST also abide by the same rules outlined above.
API Numbers: US API Crude Oil Inventories W/W (Aug 6) -2187 vs Prev. -776K US API Gasoline Inventories W/W (Aug 6) -1536K vs Prev. 2305K US API distillate Inventory W/W (Aug 6) 2286K vs prev. 1109K US API Cushing Crude Inventory W/W (Aug 6) -114K vs prev. 66K
Question for all traders here, we tested under 80 today, and somehow we manage to come above, in your opinion have we hit bottom in the near term (this week), I am seriously considering taking a swing position at 80.30 long. with a upside to the 85.
From a technical standpoint, price found support at the 20-day MA as it should when pulling back in an uptrend. I believe the standard swing trade entry setup is to go long when a pullback to the rising 20-day MA finds support, and a more confirmed entry is to go long when price breaks through today's high. Initial target would be the 84.00 level. Keep in mind however, that the overall market is "overbought", China just disappointed a bit on growth, and 81.30 is about 50% retracement of the move from 2010 highs to 2010 lows. I would want to at least see price break back up through that line with conviction. I think CL has some further downside yet, but that is an opinion from someone with a very strong short bias. Disclosure: Never swing traded this thing in my life.
I hear you, I promise my self, 2 years ago that i will never do swing trading again until I have ridiculous capital, but day trading is getting to emotional for me. I though it might help to hold a position for couple of days, maybe a QM so it will be less painful.
I would not swing long or short from here. So far it has been making a lower low everyday and a lower high. Look at a weekly chart if your trying to go long and take a swing position based on that. If I were looking for a swing long tommorow I would try to get in at 7890 area. You also might want to hedge a swing long with puts or just go long outright calls. Cheaper if your wrong.