just a matter of time before we have a 2.50 selloff, the distillites demand is dropping off a cliff was at one time a couple of months ago at 17% yoy, then 15.4% slowly going down, but now it is in the 2% yoy........i guess industry demand has really dropped off. I will be watching that, some of the numbers might be squed by timing issues, but the trend change is noticable.
Released on 8/4/2010 10:30:00 AM For wk7/30, 2010 Prior Actual Crude oil inventories (weekly change) 7.3 M barrels -2.8 M barrels Highlights A headline draw in weekly crude inventories will likely help oil hold onto this week's big price gain. Inventories fell 2.8 million barrels in the July 30 week to 358.0 million, but that's the headline. Details are not supportive: inventories at the Cushing hub rose 0.6 million barrels to 37.8 million, gasoline stocks rose 0.7 million barrels to 223.0 million, distillate stocks rose 2.2 million barrels to 169.7 million. Distillate demand has been slowing, up 2.2 percent year-on-year but down from prior weeks in what may be an indication of softening industrial demand. Gasoline demand is steady at plus 2.3 percent year-on-year. http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html i imagine we trade around here to 84 on an intrday pop, then we just sort of consolidate with any dip being bought up, til the market becomes stale, and the jonny come latelys realize we aren`t going to 90, then we have some push to the downside, and eventually trade between 83 and 77, with the outer range from 85 to 75. the bulls want to play the inflation trade but these inventories are going to keep a lid on prices, and eventually inventories get pushed up, and regardless of the weak dollar, we get 2.50 selloffs on a friday on no news, when equities or the dollar aren`t a factor, what is a factor, somebody doen`t want to take delivery in a week, or a delayed reaction to bulging inventories. you can tell we are in a bullish faze, that no real selloffs are possible these last 3 days, but this was a bearish report, and eventually, once the momentum has run its course, you will have a delayed reaction, and a big player isn`t stupid, and they pay attention to rising inventories, and the last thing they want to be is the one holding the bag, and boom out of nowhere, you get a friday selloff on a friday, then some news out of china, like sunday`s weaker manufacturing (any other time crude could easily be down 1.15 on that news) so you get some add on, and then some follow through for a tuesday before buyers come in , and before you know it we are trading at 78 a barrel. there are so many games played in markets these days, everything is a trade, and crude has the most games played for such a widely traded instrument. its all about liquidity, forced liquidations, and busting traders out of positions, running stops, squeezing traders leaning the wrong way, cl is the biggext chess game in the world. I mean on july 5th, you couldn`t get anybody to buy cl if their lide depended on it at 71/bl, and a month later you cannot get anybody to sell it at 83/bl on some pretty bad news econ wise yesterday----its total bs------welcome to the crazy world of cl-----it is by far the hardest market to trade of any market----it just pays the best of all markets, if you have what it takes----but there are definately much safer, easier markets to trade.
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html Released on 6/3/2010 11:00:00 AM For wk5/28, 2010 Prior Actual Crude oil inventories (weekly change) 2.4 M barrels -0.9 M barrels Highlights A decrease in imports made for a 0.9 million barrel draw in oil inventories, to 363.2 million barrels for the May 28 week. Gasoline inventories fell a steep 2.6 million barrels to 219.0 million, a dip that does not match up with soft demand readings including a three-month low for the year-on-year rate, at plus 0.5 percent though the Memorial weekend shift to Monday may be distorting this comparison. In contrast, distillate demand is increasing, up 17.1 percent year-on-year to indicate acceleration in the industrial sector. Oil firmed about 50 cents to $73.75 in reaction to the headline oil and gasoline draws. this is an old report but check out the yoy distillate demand, i doubt people have really caught on to this fact today, but it is something i noticed, and it is an amzing occurrence if their numbers are right, it seems there is some kind of trend here, just not sure if its as pronounced as these numbers suggest---it seems to much of a drop to be exactly correct----but the underlying trend is noteworthy in the middle of the bullish season.
This is a really accurate assessment of "this thing" as someone once called it. It's chess/poker, and if you learn to throw away all bias and ONLY trade the price action, you will learn to take advantage of those quick gratifying paychecks. There are definitely "tells" via the bid/ask levels on the book when price consolidates. Good luck to anyone trying to master this one. Put in your "sim hours" and learn not to cheat. As Schizo warned me before I went live: There are days in CL that will try your nerves.
I couldn't disagree more - I think the CL is one of the easiest markets to trade, esp when compared to the indexes. When looking at the basket of futures to trade w/ volume you basically have indexes, currencies, bonds and oil. From that, I will take oil every single day over those others in the current environment. The beauty of trading is that one man's trash is truly another man's treasure and you are under no obligation to trade something that does not fit your style.