Best thing to do is throw your bias out the window if you are daytrading. When oil hit the 89 high of the this year there was record inventories in the eia reports. Cushing has been adding more storage cause they were at full capacity. Eventually fundementals took over but it took 1.5months for them to finally catch (everyone saying there was not fundementals behind the rally). When prices did drop it was related to the Gulf diaster. What happend in the gulf should have been bullish for oil, actually that is when the producers started to cover there shorts then in turn the managed money dumped their longs and went short. From there they drove the front month down 20$ in 3weeks. If your not going to trade 95% technicals then best of luck to you. Another example for you is take a look at what happend the day the s. Korea ship was sank by the north. March26
did the scarest trade in the morning in NG, bought it at 5.061, sold it at 5.139. NG is very strong those days, bought back at 5.114, it is still shooting. if before I will short it at the new high, that is play fire, I can ignore my fear feeling and go with the trend! I think someone big guys are forcing the price up, a total manipulation. but who cares, take advantage of it
$0.001 per tick that $10bucks $0.01 corresponding to $100bucks $0.1 corresponding to $1000bucks very profitable morning in NG, I did not get out at top price, but close at 5.151. I feel it is hard to trade CRUDE, so I witch to NG.
Just my two cents: I think the price went up because the weather forecast was 50% chance of a cyclone forming in the Atlantic and moving into the Gulf (and closing offshore NG rigs). You may want to keep an eye on the weather since this is Hurricane season (although it gets worse later in the summer). EDIT: here you have a link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b9fed2e-785f-11df-942a-00144feabdc0.html