I know what you mean, playing a breakout with a stop loss can be tricky/dangerous, ideally im long a couple contracts before then like in the cup example i gave but its hard to predict ahead of time how i'd get into those positions. Ideally I dont initiate the entire position with the stop loss, and if I do I ussually already have orders in to close a couple contracts after just a 8 and 14 tick gain. If the iniatial momentum doesn't hit those and the next minute bar doesn't continue in the same direction I'm probably out, only exception might be if an ascending triangle has been forming then I'll wait a little longer but will reduce position size. So much just depends on the price action leading up to a potential breakout and how I'm already positioned (long 1 or 2 contracts showing decent profit vs. flat). Like you said we'll see how my execution is.
very good comment. and very normal comment. I do read the book three times throughly, even did his money management game (he called position sizing) in the internet ( I scored perfectly, but my wife failed, different R/R how you pick given how much money, I used my poke/chess playing strategy). I think his psychological analysis is useless or will not help trade any more, at least to me. Everyone has emotions, that is a fact. the only thing you need do is admit it, then find what kind of a person you are,everyone is unique, take advantage of the uniqueness you have even your emotions (that is your advantages over others), that is your edge, do not take advantage of or try to become what others have (that is your shortcomings, you should avoid), that is a wrong way to prevail in the market. I view myself emotionally inpatient, always want to get things done as quick as I can. when things are done accordingly and timely, I feel I am happy and full of joy and I want to do it again, otherwise I will be frustrtaed. that is why I can not do trading like Schizo here or Cstx, I love fast money, always want to find those weakest points to seek fast money, if I can win 50ticks in 5minutes, I will not want to do a trade which needs half hours or days to extract 50ticks. the sad part about most traders here is they do not have an excellent coach, me either, even they have, their coaches do not teach them in right way since they teach them generally while not in a way which can use what you have or your unqueness to become who really you are . the good part for me is I trust what god gives to me, I think what gives to me and does not give to others is gifts or my edge, that defines who I am. people may think I am bad since I am inpatient, but I view it as my advantage.
I'm hard-pressed to find a half hour time frame that DOESN'T have a 50-tick range. More than half hour in a CL trade, feels like a long-term investment
What is scalping to you? .. for ES, CL, 6E. Nice pre-analysis by the way (I quoted only a partial post) ... thanks for sharing your market view.
Nowadays scalping in the ES ussually means 2-4 pts for me, earlier in the year it was less and at times unscalpable, at least for me anyway just cause the ATR got so ridiculously low during that last leg up. Ussually I might enter with either 2 or 3 contracts exit one after a couple points and then move the stop loss on the others to slightly above breakeven or breakeven. Never want to take more than 2 point loss on any es trade. For scalping Cl I want to get at least 10 ticks, ideally 20-30 and time my entry so that my stop isn't greater than 10 ticks sometimes it can be only 5. If you watch the 1 min chart I'm sure you've seen those times where Cl retests a level and reverses 1 tick from it, its those trades that im trying to pick up when I'm scalping, anticipate where they'll be. I miss a fair amount of trades that way and sometimes get my stops run right away but the good ones really make up for it. There's other setups I use too, but that one is probably my favorite. 6e I scalp a lot less than the other two and am still figuring it out, most of the time I feel like I'm not going for enough pips. Generally scalping for me are trades that last less than a few minutes. If they start working for me right away and then depending on how the 5 min bar, 15 min bar is about to complete and how that looks overall, I might roll the trade over into a longer time frame. An example would be if the 5 min bar looked like it was going to complete as a pin bar and I had gotten in near the tail a minute or two earlier, I'd probably sit on that trade for at least another 5 minutes and especially if it happened in an area where I was looking for a reversal anyway. I also try to move stops to breakeven as soon as possible, sometimes this backfires and I move it a little too soon but overall its worked pretty well for me.
Interesting ideas - thanks for taking the time to elaborate. Regarding 6E, I've found 15-20 pip targets work for me when things set up correctly. Curiously, that hasn't changed from earlier in the year to now.