I've been meaning to post on this thread for awhile but never seem to be able to manage that multi task challenge of watching markets/trading and posting at the same time. Anyway this week I'm going to make more of an effort to give it a go. Here's what I'll be looking for. Basically I'm thinking this week is going to be up for oil or will at least retest 75 and possibly run to the 78 price area. This month has been tremendous for the shorts and the last week of May will most likely see a run up before a renewed wave of selling in June. This will also probably play out in the equity markets giving the bulls just just enough hope to hold on to before the June slaughter. If it works out as I'm predicting next Friday the MSM will probably play the story that we successfully bounced off the Flash Crash lows and reemerged above the 200 day moving avg, and everybody will be saying its a buy signal (WRONG). Euro is also in a short term uptrend which TPTB probably won't let reverse in the immediate future which can also be seen as semi bullish for oil this week. So how am I planning to play it. I see 3 scenarios playing out Sunday night/Monday that would get me into a decent sized long position. The first is a failed dip below the current lows when the pit session opens that cant run for more than 25 ticks, and if we're lucky this would give us a nice pin bar on the 5min or 15min chart confirming a buy signal. If it went below the current lows before the pit session I probably wouldnt be as enthusiastic for the trade. The next scenario has the market ignoring the lows and moving towards a breakout above 71.20. In this case I'd make my entry with some stop-loss orders, and be quick to get out if the momentum quickly dies the way it did Friday when it broke above 71.20 for only 3 ticks. Ideally any break above 71.20 would be followed by a few up bars on the 15 min chart. It might take a few tests of this area for the breakout to take hold and if this is the case id be looking for an ascending triangle to be forming. The third scenario would be if Sunday night or very early Monday morning the chart is showing the beginning of a cup formation. In this case, I'd enter with a very small position and then look to add on the breakout above 71.20. If none of these 3 scenarios play out I'll be doing some small sized scapling and discretionary trading, and then re-evaluate my analysis Monday afternoon. The majority of days I'm doing a lot of small position scalping in cl, es, 6e, gc and possibly rolling over those trades into longer timelines. Right now though I'm seeing some compelling reasons to be long this week, so those three scenarios above are what would get me in Monday with some size and for more than just a day. So I'm going to try to post in realtime this week. stay balanced, happy trading
Welcome aboard Xcer, Although we're never in short supply of crystal balls, we always appreciate diverse views and opinions. Keep us abreast of your analysis. Happy trading!
Sounds like a good plan, lets see how your execution of it is. I think all the buyers took last week off. The only thing I would be careful of is your buystop above 7120. I think there will be some selling pressure in that area that might make a better entry on the first pullback.
Ain't that right? Ya know what though? Being a contrarian, I'm going against you folks. Yes, Monday might inspire a ragtag squad of bargain hunters to kick up the dust but it will soon dissipate IMO. I still say we fall down to $60.
I agree with you if the open interest keeps going up. See ya later, im going to go put cute outfits on my cat and take pictures of him