CL Redux

Ah gotcha , you were looking at the long term TL . Yup.

NP, just wanting to learn as much as I can.

 

way too early! crude is very bearish, crashed with the index

 

the gap between july and june is widened to 4.7 points!
schizo, please explain to us about the gap. it seems lots of june long holder(big guys?) are dumping very hard, they seized any pop to sell

 

You might want to read this article.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...k-crisis-and-the-widening-spread-in-wti-crude

You might also want to check the crack spread between gasoline and crude as well as Nymex and Brent. I hear that they're also widening.

As for the reason why the calendar spread is so wide, I can only say it's a screwed up market run by typical morons. Be that as it may, traders are very nervous about the short-term prospect, especially with the euro on the brink of collapse. This applies not only to crude, but just about every damn market under the sun.

 

I wasn't sure if you were referring to the daily or the intraday move. Frankly, they both look pretty dismal.

According to my newbie outlook, there's a support level at 72.80. However, I ain't so sure that will hold considering that it's only 1 point away. The next support is at approximately 70.

If there's no sign of improvement in the overnight session, you know which side I'll be playing in the days to come.

 

it is a good article, get some idea about the spread. thanks

 

I was referring to intraday, in my opinion it looks pretty uggly. Like the article that you linked, the Contango is huge, I honestly never seen it so wide spread, on this time of the year. I agree with you I am looking at support around 72, and the 70. I've been following the Euro, and the SP500, in my opinion is what it's moving the oil lately. It all depends on how the market takes next week this Euro crisis, but we are in key number for the market right now, the only positive I saw in Crude is the we staring to consume gasoline, and It might relflect in next week EIA report, Gasoline usually, drives a rally in Crude, but that's about it, besides that, this market looks ugly. In my personal opinion if we break the 70's we going to the 60's but if I see signal of reversal in 70 or 72.80, that will be bottom and will come back to mid 80's

 

Guys look at this:
"Crude Stockpiles

Oil also slipped after U.S. equities retreated on widening probes of banks’ mortgage-bond deals. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.2 percent to 1,157.44, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1 percent to 10,782.95.

Stockpiles of crude oil at Cushing rose 784,000 barrels to 37 million, the highest level since the Energy Department began reporting on inventories at the hub in April 2004.

Nationwide oil supplies gained 1.95 million barrels to 362.5 million, the 14th increase in 15 weeks, according to the department. The increase left stockpiles 6.1 percent above the five-year average for the period, up from 5.4 percent the previous week. "

This explains the big contango that we have.

 

Its time to get long in a big way. Until you see some flagging economic fundamentals, this is a disclocation to be taken advantage of.

 

People that are long are most likely in the July contract. The current one expires in 7days.