CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Crazy stuff! As I recall someone on ET once warned me they lost $5K in a few seconds on NG.

    I imagine a few traders retired on that move today.
     
    #6221     Apr 29, 2010
  2. RedSun

    RedSun

    If anyone here has access to news, can you tell if the oil leak will close the ship channels Houston? If this is only LA, oil shipping should be ok.

    We get plenty oil anyway.
     
    #6222     Apr 29, 2010
  3. RedSun

    RedSun

    Well, it depends. If I want to risk $100K and assign $3,300 risk/contract, I can put on 30 contracts outright. That is only 1% of a $10MM account.

    Spreads are safe, but low risk-adjusted returns.
     
    #6223     Apr 29, 2010
  4. schizo

    schizo

    So much for that crazy prediction. I was thinking at the time that we would have a modestly bearish day today and then possibly a upleg tomorrow. But this thing is just off the damn hook and, as a result, I've had one miserable day.

    Isn't it funny that whenever you suspect there might be a genuine selloff, you're immediately rewarded with a seller's remorse?
     
    #6224     Apr 29, 2010
  5. you are not alone in the twilight zone!
     
    #6225     Apr 29, 2010
  6. I made 20k+ on NG today, I gambled on the report.

     
    #6226     Apr 29, 2010
  7. F112358

    F112358

    I observe with dismay that no one has reported making big money today on a day that opened at the low and closed at the high in the daily chart.

    Then I put a 5' chart and figured why. This thing in the short term is very very wiggly.

    CL is still work in progress for me.
     
    #6227     Apr 29, 2010
  8. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I'm assuming this is your demo account, because a couple weeks ago your account was $6500, then Monday you lost nearly $4000 of that in CL. So I'm assuming you wouldn't risk an account blowup and a nasty margin call on a news gamble.

    If you actually turned $2,500 real money into $22,500 real money on NG today, then congratulations on winning the Roulette wheel 50/50 trading strategy!
     
    #6228     Apr 29, 2010
  9. RedSun

    RedSun

    From what I see, the Greek thing was overdone. Now in a day, we recovered all the loss.

    CL follow equity. Now we get the leak/spill push. The after-market move is all that push.

    But the leak/spill should not have big impact to oil supply. Cushing is just a few MM close to capacity. The coast guard can contain the oil spill to prevent it from coming to ship channels. Hope the oil leak can calm down soon.

    If traders do see material impacts from oil leak, the M/N spead should turn to backward. But it is at $-2 now.
     
    #6229     Apr 29, 2010
  10. RedSun

    RedSun

    We should remember that, if gain is $20k, the risk is at least that same amount!
     
    #6230     Apr 29, 2010