CL Redux

woulda preferred to buy ng, cold weather probably will become worse in the US, but gapped open and i don't want to chase it.

 

broke trendline from june 2012 retested now targeting 89-90

 

after a bounce ,then 89-87.8

 

out 9195

short 9195

 

Woulda been a great trade...

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ond-day-as-u-s-fuel-supplies-seen-rising.html

1/ West Texas Intermediate crude traded little changed <b>in its worst start to any year since 2009 </b>amid estimates U.S. fuel (Gasoline) stockpiles increased for a third week, signaling slowing demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer.

2/ Futures declined 6.4 percent in New York since Dec. 31. Distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose by 1.38 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed before Energy Information Administration data tomorrow.

Deutsche Bank AG lowered its 2014 forecasts for WTI and Brent amid “rampant U.S. oil-supply growth.”

“We’re bearish for the first few months of the year,” said Frank Klumpp, an analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, Germany. “The market will be driven by the supply side in 2014. Maybe the trend of better-than-expected U.S. supplies will continue in 2014.”

WTI for February delivery rose as much as 53 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $92.33 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.16 at 1:09 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was about 24 percent below the 100-day average. The contract fell 92 cents to $91.80 yesterday.

Brent for February settlement slipped 20 cents to $106.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $14.40 to WTI.

Newest Estimates

Deutsche Bank predicts average prices in 2014 of $88.75 a barrel for WTI and $97.50 for Brent, a report e-mailed today showed, compared with respective previous projections of $98.75 and $106.25. The latest estimates are about $10 a barrel lower than 2013 levels, according to the bank.

“A third year of rampant U.S. oil-supply growth propelled by tight/shale oil development” is “increasingly painting a picture of an oversupplied global oil balance,” said Soozhana Choi, Deutsche Bank’s head of energy research in Washington.

WTI crude-options volatility jumped yesterday to the highest level since Nov. 29. Implied volatility for at-the-money March WTI options, a measure of expected futures movements and a key gauge of value, rose to 19.62 percent, up from 18.27 percent on Jan. 10.

WTI closed at an eight-month low of $91.66 a barrel on Jan. 9 amid surging crude output and reduced fuel use in the U.S. Production climbed by 24,000 barrels a day to 8.15 million in the week ended Jan. 3, the fastest rate since September 1988, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

More Gasoline

 

Anyone else looking for 93.80ish tomorrow? I would like it to coincide with an ovx around 18 at which point I'd be buying more puts. Right now I'm long 2 outright and long 1 90 march put and 1 89 apr put If we go back below 92 I'll be stopped out of the CL's and let the puts do the work.

Anyone ever have an motor seal break on a dishwasher? Fucking thing is only 5 years old. All I have to say is thank God for drop ceilings!

 

As usual I took profits way to soon And only added one put up here an apr 90 at 1.40 but I'm proceeding slowly as 95 looks possible for tomorrow morning. If we get a upward breach of whatever consolidation takes place for the next couple of hours I sell back the puts and not try to scalp with the outright as that only leads to getting chopped up.

 

I think they're gunning for 94.60 now.

Flat currently

 

was stopped out at 9295