CL Redux

Thanks. I wasn't trading quite that early, my longs from 98.80 were during the leg up from 10:20 ET through 11:00 ET. I did catch the short about a min before the open. The 8:50 ET bar on the 5-min chart wasn't at all a decent short setup for me, but the 1-min pattern inside the 5-min bars (from 8:50-8:58 ET) clarified the PA and provided me with the confidence for a short trade from the 98.90's, looking for a move into the .50's.

I'm definitely a micro trader in this narrow range price environment. Last year Libya gave us fantastic volatility. I miss those big strong moves you could hold for a point or better in a short period of time.

 

what time frame do you trade and what kind of SL? Thanks. post directed to zen and nodoji

 

This varies from time to time. We obviously need to trade what's there at all times. There are plenty of opportunities. Some possible reasons for this narrower range are:

1. This is up where it is in large part due to the Middle East issues, which haven't changed much lately. Thus this stays a bit high maybe but won't selloff as the issues are still alive.

2. The general market, although in an uptrend, has narrower ranges too. Any attempts to selloff are bought up by the bulls. But it seems a bit toppy to me too. But there hasn't been any devastatingly negative news lately either.

3 And.............

 

Here's a simple daily chart to illustrate.

 

Off to bed. Chicago PMI and Consumer confidence in the morning.

http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/01/30-03

 

I have been reading this thread. Few 100s pages to go and I am done.

If I follow the method - as I understand it as now though it is not completely clear - here of using trendlines + moving average + candlesticks + elliott waves simplified ( 1-2-3 impusel and 1-2 correction) for leg counts:
1) it has broken and retested many uptrendlines , thus according to this approach, we are in a reversal
2) the moving average is now bending from the upside, signaling a end or at least a pause to the uptrend
3) there are many more red bull bodied bars, signaling the reds want it more down.
4) however, we have quiet a few dojis, signaling that the bulls are still putting in some efforts.
5) it is now in a triangle , thus we should expect a breakout.

It attempted a strong breakout down in mid december , but created a big spike in volume and it help , and crude moved back up.

Now, the hardest part : should one go short or long



According to this approach there are more reasons to go short.
I am going to wait for my first 2012 CL trade using this new approach for me. I am waiting for it to test the upper side of the trianble to short.
I will also take this trade on demo, as I am using a non familiar approach.

 

Stopped out at 10000 and reverse long.

 

I am still getting used to the charting software.

Using the trendlines + eliottwaves 123-12 + candlesticks , we have :

- daily chart :
1) broke out from 94, via a bull flag on the 21/11/11 ( trendlines)
2) 123 legs , hit 104 , 12 correction
3) up again , but lower high , and started a reversal
4) the reversal was a 123 to 94, where it found buyers
5) up again, correction 12, then bounce again up, stopped by 104 resistance
6) down and in a triangle.


first attcahement

 

- h4 chart :
101 price : top of triangle.
No idea if it will break it and go to 104
or the breakout will fail and back into the no man's land

potential trades :
buy stop above around 101 , stop loss to be defined , target 104

or sell limit order around 101 , stop loss to be defined, target 98.5


Now we need to watch this closely to see which trade to take and refine the entry.

secdon attachement.

 

first didn't get sent.
here is the daily analysis

attachement