And now out @98.17. Call it a day. Market seems a bit overbought short term to me. We need a bit of a pullback. Talking indices, not crude necessarily.
Had to take kid to get blood work done The more I sit here and stare at this with an empty mind all I see is down. Of course one b.s. headline can change everything but I guess that's what stops and options are for.
Here's an interesting article on global oil pricing written by Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange. He says, "All is not as it appears in the global oil markets, which have become entirely dysfunctional and no longer fit for its purpose, in my view. I believe that the market price is about to collapse as it did in 2008, and that this will mark the end of an era in which the market has been run by and on behalf of trading and financial intermediaries. In this post I forecast the imminent death of the crude oil market and I identify the killers; the re-birth of the global market in crude oil in new form will be the subject of another post." Global Oil Pricing http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8834
Here's a separate forum with an additional article and interview with Chris Cook posted. You should read this. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=235119
Here's another weekly chart in a different time frame. Good to look at different time frames to get some perspective on what's up. You can see the resistance especially in the 103-104 area, where we just came from, and of course support too in the 90 area, with even greater support around 84.
Are the blue and green lines EMA's? What are they set too? At this point oil seems week for breaking $ 100, but they had a survey recently saying if economic conditions improve, then the price of oil should go up. I should have shorted natural gas but I was too late to the trade.
Hi Yes the green line is the 14 day EMA and the blue line is the 50 day EMA. As far as the price going up, we'll see what happens. There are a lot of factors that will drive this, with improving economic conditions being only one. Read the articles I mention in the post a few up from this, in a new forum in which Chris Cook, an expert's expert, is looking for a collapse in the price like we had in 2008.
Just a small point that I was thinking about yesterday while looking at this chart. This was obviously a nice trade, but I did leave a little over $200 on the table. When I took my profit I wanted out before it sold off and disappeared. So when it stalled out @99.00 and then retreated slightly and started back, I thought it would stall out again and selloff this time. So I took the profit. Next time what I'd like to do when it's testing a whole dollar amount, especially a second time, on it's way up after a significant runup is just use a stop instead of closing the position. That way if it does selloff I'll get my profit. But if it continues to climb another 20 or 30 ticks, which is quite common too, I'll get the extra profit. Just some fine tuning.