CL Redux

Just pulling your leg, USMan

 

I know and I have been trading long enough and have lost enough to know such a news would never warrant such a move; especially when in the past, we break critical barriers we consolidate if there is to be a continuation move. I still maintain by call of oil at $95 by next week. If it goes the other way, I will have to take a break from trading and rethink

 

10:30am DOE Crude Inventories est. -1200K range -2500K to 2500K prior -1370K

DOE Distillate Inventory est. -2350K range -4000K to 1400K prior -6020K

DOE Gas Inventories est. -1000K range -2250K to 1700K prior -2107K

DOE Refinery Utilization est. 0.50% range -0.50% to 1.0% prior -2.7%

 

Conoco’s Brent Control http://blogs.wsj.com/overheard/2011/11/16/conocos-brent-control/

<< Thanks P. for the Original post
<b>I would call this as the Story behind " Brent/WTI spread collapse continuum" </b>
>>

In oil markets, 2011 has been the year of the great Brent spread. The North Sea crude oil benchmark has been trading at an unusually high premium to U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil for much of the year after many years of rough parity or trading at a slight discount.

1/ On one side, the Libyan conflict pulled up demand for Brent.
2/ On the other — as discussed in this “Heard on the Street” column from February — logistical constraints have kept an increasing amount of oil bottled up in the Midwest. As Cushing, OK is where the WTI contract is settled physically, this glut has kept WTI prices depressed, widening the spread.

3/ Having started the year trading at <b>a premium of $3.37 a barrel to WTI, Brent’s lead hit a peak of almost $27 </b>on September 6th.


4/ Now one of those bottlenecks on WTI is likely to be eased. Conoco is selling its 50% stake in the Seaway pipeline to Canada’s Enbridge Inc. <b>Conoco kept the pipeline running northwards, i.e. bringing oil from the Gulf coast to Cushing. This kept oil bottled up in the Midwest, meaning Conoco’s refineries there had access to cheaper raw material, allowing them to generate big profits. </b>

5/ Now that Conoco is splitting itself, it has no need for Seaway. And Enbridge, as a pipeline operator, has no incentive to keep the pipeline flowing north. <B>By the second quarter of 2012, it expects Seaway to be transporting 150,000 barrels per day from Cushing to the Gulf coast, alleviating the WTI glut. </b>

6/ As of now, Brent’s premium to WTI has collapsed another $2.37 this morning, and is now down under $11 a barrel. As more pipelines get built over the next several years — including, perhaps, a rerouted Keystone XL — the great 2011 spread will be but a fond memory in oil refiners’ minds.

 

11/16/2011 10:30 *DJ DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks -1.056M Bbl In Wk; Seen -0.8M Bbl

 

I think this 102 is last gasp for the next week 95 , conveniently coinciding with the expected 11 hour , last second GOP/DEM drama on the 'DEFICIT REDUCTION'
(<b> Market are expected highly volatile next week with day to emotions running high on this 'DEFICIT reduction ' vote </b>)

With nine days left for Congress to strike a deal to get the nation’s fiscal house in order, success or failure for the 12-member “super committee” are both still plausible outcomes. Congress set a self-imposed deadline of Nov. 23 to come up with a deal.

The panel needs 7 votes ( we have 6 DEM 6 GOP on comity ) on a deal to force at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next 10 years.

 

R2(101.22) providing nice floor so far. i wouldn't be surprised to see 103 either today or tomorrow.

 

The undoing of the spread is likely to take weeks...

Of course it will still go up and down, but everything else being equal, that should provide some support

 

shorted at 101.94, tight tight stop.

 

out at 101.92. bastards...