CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. price now above both 20ema and 50sma on 5 min chart. looking for a squeeze here soon.
     
    #19871     Apr 12, 2011
  2. BCE

    BCE

    Not sure if I already posted this.

    Futures Movers

    April 12, 2011, 1:46 p.m. EDT
    Oil drops more than 3% on demand fears
    International Energy Agency: High prices denting demand growth

    By Claudia Assis and Polya Lesova , MarketWatch

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude futures stumbled more than 3% Tuesday as a rash of pessimistic views on U.S. economic growth raised fresh doubts about oil demand.

    Light, sweet crude for May delivery (NEW:CLK11) fell $3.56, or 3.2%, to $106.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    The session’s steep losses follow a decline of 2.5% Monday, oil’s biggest one-day percentage drop in a month. Prices have fallen more than $6 a barrel since Friday.

    U.S. trade activity softened in February, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Read more about trade activity in the U.S.

    That led several economists to lower their estimates for first-quarter U.S. growth this week, affecting crude prices as investors feared reduced economic activity will translate into less need for oil.

    The International Monetary Fund on Monday had cut its estimate of gross-domestic-product growth for the U.S. and Japan

    Investors also reacted to supply-and-demand forecasts from international oil groups and news reports that Saudi Arabia has cut production by half a million barrels a day, less than two months after revving up its output to make up for losses in exports from Libya.

    The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report earlier Tuesday preliminary data for January and February suggest that “high prices are already starting to dent demand growth.”

    The IEA also said global oil output fell by 700,000 barrels a day to 88.3 million barrels a day in March on reduced Libyan crude supply.

    Oil-rich Libya has been torn by violent political unrest in recent weeks.

    A cease-fire deal reportedly brokered by the African Union with embattled leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi was rejected by rebel forces Tuesday. Libya’s rebel leadership refused to agree to the peace proposal because it did not provide for Gadhafi’s departure, according to reports.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meanwhile, estimated increased demand for its oil and for global oil in its monthly outlook also released Tuesday.

    OPEC estimated demand for member-country crude in 2010 at 29.5 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels higher than in the previous report and about 400,00 barrels higher than 2009.

    In 2011, demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 29.9 million barrels per day, about 400,000 higher than a year ago and 100,000 over OPEC’s previous report.

    OPEC also forecast global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2011, following an increase of 2 million barrels a day in 2010. “Japan’s disaster led to a sudden decline in the country’s use of oil. However, this should be offset by fuel substitution from nuclear to crude-burning and rebuilding operations later in the year,” OPEC said.

    Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia had cut output by 500,000 barrels a day as its extra production, meant to alleviate the loss of Libyan oil, was met with “tepid demand,” citing people familiar with the matter.

    Prospects of slower demand prompted Goldman Sachs analysts to forecast a drop to $105 a barrel for Brent crude futures in the near future.

    Even with the loss of Libyan production, the oil market has “adequate inventory” and spare production to avoid a repeat of tightness seen in 2008, the Goldman analysts said in a report released Tuesday. Read more about the predicted pullback in commodities.

    Brent for May delivery retreated $2.85, or 2.3%, to $121.16 a barrel on ICE Futures in London.

    “Not only are there now nascent signs of oil-demand destruction in the U.S., but also the record speculative length in the oil market, elections in Nigeria and a potential cease-fire in Libya that has begun to offset some of the upside risk owing to contagion,” they added.

    Gasoline futures held on to losses after the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration predicted more demand, but also higher prices for retail gasoline.

    In its short-term outlook report released Tuesday, the EIA forecast retail prices for gasoline to peak at $3.91 a gallon in early summer, and average $3.86 a gallon during the driving season, which started April 1 and will end Sept. 30.

    Prices averaged $2.76 a gallon last summer. The agency also projected a 0.5% increase in gasoline consumption compared to the previous summer. With the projected increase in gasoline prices, vehicle fueling costs for the average U.S. household will be $825 higher this year than in 2010. See more about gasoline price expectations.

    Rounding up action in energy futures, May heating oil (NEW:HOK11) declined 8 cents, or 2.6%, to $3.17 a gallon.

    May natural gas (NEW:NGK11) dropped 2 cents, or 0.6%, to $4.09 per million British thermal units.

    Prices were headed for the seventh decline in eight sessions on prospects of milder spring-like temperatures for key energy-consuming markets.
     
    #19872     Apr 12, 2011
  3. schizo

    schizo

    Or it could be the usual Tax Day selloff. Every year you have a multi-day selloff leading up to that dreaded day in the US.
     
    #19873     Apr 12, 2011
  4. price above 50sma on 5 min? chart please
     
    #19874     Apr 12, 2011
  5. it WAS for a brief moment to get me all excited. :mad:
     
    #19875     Apr 12, 2011
  6. BCE

    BCE

    BTW I was right, it did go either way. :)
     
    #19876     Apr 12, 2011
  7. BCE

    BCE

    Exactly.
     
    #19877     Apr 12, 2011
  8. BCE

    BCE

    April 12, 2011, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    U.S. runs $188 billion deficit in March

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The United States ran a budget deficit of $188 billion in March, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday. For the first half of fiscal year 2011, the deficit is $829 billion, or about $112 billion more than the first six months of the prior fiscal year. The year-to-date deficit would be $49 billion lower than the same period in fiscal 2010 adjusting for costs related to the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a Treasury official said.
     
    #19878     Apr 12, 2011
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Flip long 105.63
     
    #19879     Apr 12, 2011
  10. BCE

    BCE

    Nice. I was just thinking of that.
     
    #19880     Apr 12, 2011