CL Redux

out 110.93 +27

 

whats you exit?

 

Out 110.87

 

nice

 

I don't think that's the problem. When trying for the big moves, I lose quite a bit from false breakouts. Those add up.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110411-707491.html

1/ "We follow whatever the trend is, and right now the trend is that Libya's going to have a ceasefire," said Carl Larry, head of the Houston oil trading advisory firm Oil Outlooks & Opinions. "We follow the flavor of the day, and right now people are starting to think, 'Hey, we overbought this market.'"

<<
smart guy Carl Larry , he said it when it was 112.22

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 57 cents, or 0.5%, to $112.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

>>

2/ Still, few market participants expect a swift return of Libya's oil exports, and Monday's pull-back could be short-lived if no ceasefire is reached. An economist with BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) said Monday that it could take years for the war-torn country to resume significant exports.

"For all intents and purposes Libyan exports...are gone," Christof Ruhl told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of an industry conference in Perth.

Unrest in oil producing countries has been a critical factor behind the roughly 23% climb in Nymex oil futures prices this year.

3/ In addition to Libya, traders are also closely watching Nigeria, produces about 2.2 million barrels a day of high-quality crude and is in the midst of national elections.

During previous elections, opposition groups have attacked oil infrastructure in the West African country, disrupting crude production. Though no such attacks have been reported during the latest election cycle, any reduction in crude exports could be disruptive to the oil market because Nigeria's high-quality "sweet" crude is seen as offsetting lower output from Libya.

4/ "There is no deficit of crude oil in the global market, but there is a strong deficit of sweet crude, especially in Europe that is normally the biggest taker of Libya's sweet crude oil," energy analysts with Swedish bank SEB said in a report. "Any disruptions in Nigeria's production would thus have an exponential effect on the market for sweet crudes."
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-heads-toward-113-a-barrel-2011-04-11

Markets don’t “fully trust the proposed cease-fire ... but the news may have tempered Friday’s bullish sentiment to at least a minor degree,” said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup’s Citi Futures Perspective, in a note to clients.


Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said the world economic recovery is set to continue despite Japan’s earthquake and higher commodities, but mentioned oil prices as a downside risk.

Such comments “may have also reinforced the idea that higher oil prices are a threat to the demand side,” Evans said.

-- Political unrest raged over the weekend in the Middle East, with dozens killed and many left wounded. Read more about unrest in the Middle East

-- Security forces in Syria killed dozens of protesters over the weekend, according to media reports. Demonstrators in Yemen were also met with gunshots and tear gas Friday and Saturday.

-- In Egypt, a key oil crossroads, two were dead and dozens injured after the Army cleared protesters from Cairo’s Tahrir Square, according to news reports. Protesters still occupied the square on Monday.

-- Oman’s security forces were out to prevent fresh protests on Friday, and on Saturday the chief prosecutor said activists will face trials for instigating protests, according to news reports.

“The situation in Oman deserves to be watched most closely, as [the country] produces about 800,000 [barrels of oil per day],” analysts at MF Global said in a note to clients Monday.

Oman, which is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has 5.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, one of the largest among non-OPEC members, and significant natural-gas reserves, according to the Energy Information Administration.

 

the reason for that is front-running imo. its nearly impossible to be that fast manually.

 

OK folks, what're we doing now? Anyone believe the double bottom at 110.56, or are we still looking for places to short?

ADD: Earlier I was looking to short again at .18 or .47 for a break to more downside, not so sure now, support is looking pretty supporty. I may just play the range or stand aside.

 

I would say rise to 111.45 before next leg down ( if any ) for today
Friday OIL spent 3/4 of the day at 111.50 , so we should re-visit it today .

 

On the third hand, what the hell do I know (as the support no longer looks all that supporty)?