CL Redux

Discussion in 'Journals' started by schizo, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. Should be another $.80 down from here tomorrow.
     
    #19271     Apr 7, 2011
  2. Good info DAX


    The monthly roll cycle starts Tuesday April 5th for Crude Oil with the 4-day rolling of USO positions, the USO is an exchange traded security meant to track movements in the WTI futures contract. This happens over a four day period now from the 5th-8th of April, so that traders cannot easily front-run the rollover process.

    Rolling, Rolling, Rolling - USO, Brent & WTI
    Nevertheless, obviously with the price of Crude rising, the USO has to sell a lot of front month longs in the May contract to rollover to the June contract. Based on the listed holdings as of Monday April 4,
    - USO will roll over 8,400 WTI Crude Futures for the May contract on the ICE exchange,
    - and also has to rollover 8,821 CL Crude Futures for the May contract on the Nymex exchange,
    - and 2,000 Crd. Oil Fincl. Futures WS for May also on the Nymex exchange.


    Next we have the Brent contract Rollover schedule which begins
    - with options that expire on the 12th of April
    - with the futures contract expiring on the 15th of April.

    However, expect traders to position ahead of the actual expiration date as most traders will roll their Brent futures contracts sometime between the 8th and the 13th and for options the 8th through the 12th serves as a good rule of thumb.

    For the WTI rollover we have options expiring on the 14th of April, and futures on the 19th of April, but again most of the rollover takes place prior to the last 2 days of the date of expiration. So expect most traders to rollover positions somewhere between the 12th through the 15th of April. For options activity it would be the 12th through the 14th.

     
    #19272     Apr 7, 2011
  3. Position trade:

    Short @108.41
    Add: Short @ 108.60
    Add: Short @ 109.00

    Avg price @ 108.67

    no stop - managing position manually for the time being
     
    #19273     Apr 7, 2011
  4. Visaria

    Visaria

    Still long at 10860 position trade
     
    #19274     Apr 7, 2011
  5. Visaria

    Visaria

    DAX, aren't the highs of May 10915?
     
    #19275     Apr 7, 2011
  6. Yep - 109.15. I didnt want to put it a tick or two above the exact high, as I know a lot of locals that try to high tick highs/levels - looking for stops to go off.

    When the CL printed 109.15 yesterday, the Brent traded a contract high of 123.37 (dollar higher)

    Which market is gonna be the leader today! Thats the billion dollar question......
     
    #19276     Apr 7, 2011
  7. Visaria

    Visaria

    I have a buy stop at 10916.

    The locals can screw themselves.

    Btw, there aren't any locals at the moment, maybe when pit opens.
     
    #19277     Apr 7, 2011
  8. Sorry im referring the ex-locals (ex-Liffe and IPE traders), that screen trade the ICE contracts in the London Arcades.
     
    #19278     Apr 7, 2011
  9. Visaria

    Visaria

    I'm an ex-local (ex-LIFFE).

    Don't worry about those guys, mostly losers.
     
    #19279     Apr 7, 2011
  10. Visaria

    Visaria

    Same goes for most hedge fund managers, mostly losers. They may not necessarily go bust, but they lose enough for them to close down shop because they would need unbelievable performance to earn incentive fees.
     
    #19280     Apr 7, 2011