<b>Oil rises to 2-1/2 year peak on job rise, supply fear</b> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/02/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110402?pageNumber=2 NEW YORK | Fri Apr 1, 2011 8:24pm EDT (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped on Friday, as supportive U.S. jobs data reinforced economic growth expectations and Libya's conflict and Middle East unrest kept supply threats in focus, pushing both Brent and U.S. crude to their highest settlements since 2008. 1/ U.S. nonfarm payrolls registered solid growth for a second month in March and the jobless rate hit a two-year low of 8.8 percent, helping fuel optimism about oil demand. 2/ Geopolitical supply risks also had oil traders wary of being too short at the weekend, as Libya's undecided conflict and Middle East unrest persist and elections near for OPEC-member Nigeria, brokers and analysts said. 3/ Oil prices also benefited from momentum after ending the first quarter posting double-digit quarterly gains. Brent's front-month 2-1/2-year high of $119.79 was struck on February 24. Brent has bounced back after falling below $108 in the aftermath of Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami. U.S. crude rose $1.22 to settle at $107.94, pushing to $108.47 in post-settlement trading. Both the settlement and the intraday peak were the highest since September 2008. low volume --------------- The weekly total U.S. crude trading volume was the lowest of the year, dropping to 2.45 million lots traded, down from 2.53 million last week and lowest since the week to December 31, according to Reuters data. Friday's volume of 509,669 lots was 32 percent below the 30-day average, while Brent's daily volume of 454,581 lots, was only 7.5 percent below its 30-day average. "You have the jobs report, Libya has escalated, you've got Nigeria elections soon and Syria and the Middle East unrest and<b> it's the first day of the quarter so you have new money come in," </b> said Richard Ilczyszyn, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago. "There is a tug of war going on with the dollar after the jobs report and it's Friday so there may be reluctance to go into the weekend short." Money managers <b>raised their net-long positions in crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week to Tuesday</b>, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a report on Friday. he U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000, more than the 190,000 expected and followed Thursday's report that weekly initial jobless benefit claims fell last week.
Here's a video on the crude situation from a guy that may not be a real expert, but he does present a more bullish outlook and explains the crude valuations increases. http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...1-04-01/135426A9-DA0D-48FD-9D43-E6EF3EEB6D05#!135426A9-DA0D-48FD-9D43-E6EF3EEB6D05 Also there has been talk that the Fed may begin to raise interest rates again to help keep inflation, created by higher commodity prices (including oil) among other things, in check and strengthen the dollar. This could happen as soon as this week. Some of the Fed governors have mentioned this. This would put pressure on crude prices. Maybe they would raise rates by 1/4 point.
Long 6 @ 108.65, target 110.42 ADD: Going to watch a movie now that nicely captures the price of crude oil: Unstoppable
This Libyan official in Greece is a drama by gaddafi to buy time to with draw no fly zone with some false promise with elections soon. Any way this news will keep the HOD at 108.90 ish , and a low as low as 106.50 ( assumptions. No additional geo political tensions in middle east on Monday ) http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2011/04/201143154928842116.html "It stands to reason that Libya would reach out to the Greeks, if they would reach out to anyone in Europe, because Greece is a country that's always been Arab-friendly in its foreign policy," he said. Given the poor state of the Greek economy, he added, its government is currently particularly susceptible to incentives from Libya, such as cheap oil. While it has not participated in the air strikes,_Greece has provided access to its territorial waters to French aircraft carriers southwest of Crete, along with permanent territorial access to NATO and US forces. _ "So it is a strategic ally in the region and it is worth the Libyans making an attempt at least to see whether the Greeks are interested in showing some of their friendship," he said. Anita McNaught, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tripoli, said there is much speculation about what might be discussed during the reported negotiations. They could involve some of transitional arrangement to help Gaddafi "take a graceful exit from the Libyan political scene," she said._ Greece is likely to be viewed by Tripoli as one of few potential negotiating partners in Europe, McNaught said. "Would Libya think that Greece would be a more sympathetic ear in Europe, than old friends like Italy, which Libya feels betrayed by, and all the other implacable voices in the rest of the EU?"
Yemen --------- http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/20114311371087507.html 'Peaceful transition' The coalition has released details of their initiative for a peaceful transition of power, according to Al Jazeera's sources. As part of his interim duties, they called on Saleh's deputy to reorganise the central and national security as well as the Republican Guard, the forces currently loyal to Saleh and controlled by his son and nephews. Hadi was appointed by Saleh as Yemen's vice-president after the civil war in 1994._ He is well regarded by the opposition, and the negotiations between the president's advisers and the opposition took place at his house in Sanaa._ By accepting someone from the ruling party to lead in the interim, the opposition appeared to_send a message that it is willing to be flexible_about finding a solution. The move is also likely to help the coalition_win support of residents of southern Yemen, where Hadi hails from. The suggestion to appoint him as the country's leader has come as no surprise, but so far, the president has rejected every offer that requires him to leave office before the end of the year._ There has been no reaction from the president or the ruling party so far.
Libya --------- http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/04/03/libya.war/index.html 0/ A former Obama national security adviser said Sunday that the international coalition in Libya cannot leave the country until Gadhafi leaves power. <b>"The problem is that while everybody wants to see Gadhafi leave, either be removed or leave on his own, that end state is not yet clear," Ret. Gen. Jim Jones said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." "Unfortunately most people want perfect clarity in a situation where clarity doesn't really exist yet."</b> 1/ Last week, Libyan opposition leader Mustafa Abdul Jalil laid out cease-fire conditions that included freedom of expression for the Libyan people and the removal of snipers, mercenaries and militias from western cities. Ultimately, he said, the opposition's goal remains regime change in Libya. 2/ But government officials spurned the opposition cease-fire proposal. Government spokesman Musa Ibrahim told reporters in Tripoli on Friday the offer included "silly conditions." "They are asking us to withdraw from our own cities and open our cities to people, who are holding up arms, who are tribal, violent, no unified leadership, al Qaeda links, and no one knows who they are," he said. "If this is not mad, then I don't know what it is." Rebel spokesman Abdul Hafiz Ghoga sought to clarify the opposition's position Saturday. 3/ "There is no, and was no, negotiation on a cease-fire with Colonel Gadhafi's dictatorship," he said at a news conference. He repeated the opposition demands that Gadhafi halt all military action, end the sieges laid on cities like Misrata and allow free speech and assembly. 4/ Sources close to Gadhafi have told CNN that <b> political solutions are still possible but that the Libyan leader would relinquish power only to others within his inner circle.</b>