some on Syria to understand US role etc.. http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/28/syria.al.assad/index.html?iref=allsearch Syria's long-term alliance with Iran and its sponsorship of the Hezbollah militia in neighboring Lebanon are also sensitive issues at home. Some reports from Daraa say protesters have raised their voices against both. Syrian officials quoted in U.S. cables say Hezbollah is a legitimate resistance movement and part of the overall Middle East peace process. In other words -- Syria's (and Iran's) insurance card against Israel. In 2009, the top U.S. diplomat in Damascus sharply criticized Syria's alleged delivery of ballistic missiles to Hezbollah. "Syria's actions have created a situation in which miscalculation or provocative behavior by Hezbollah could prove disastrous for Syria and the broader region," he wrote. Other cables suggest constant juggling by al-Assad as he tries to keep the alliance with Iran intact while not closing the door to negotiations with Israel. Fawaz Gerges at the London School of Economics says Syria is a critical regional player. "Instability in Syria means there will be instability in Lebanon, which is a divided country along sectarian lines." Iran, too, would be affected were Assad to go, he said: "Syria is a critical player that supports a non-Arab state. The West has tried to wean Syria off Iran but has failed." Barak Seener, a research fellow with the Royal United Services Institute in London, agrees that events in Syria could alter the Middle East landscape. "A liberal democratic Syria would be more susceptible to peace with Israel, irrespective of the status of the Golan Heights," he said. "In light of the opposition that removed Mubarak, it is questionable whether peace can be made with autocratic leaders that can be removed and not with liberal societies." Seener says the violence so far does not threaten the regime's existence but "will embolden the majority-Sunni population and Kurdish minority, who deeply resent the political dominance of the Alawi minority, to protest." Al-Assad is an Alawite. But so far, none of Syria's major cities has seen the sort of unrest witnessed in Daraa. Some Syria-watchers say al-Assad may even turn the crisis to his advantage by pushing through reform despite the hardliners and bureaucratic inertia. He may also benefit from a fractured opposition. Syrian analyst Murhaf Jouejati at George Washington University says that civil society has been stifled by decades of emergency rule. "The protesters are not organized. The opposition is fragmented," he said. "Civil society is not developed enough to be a counterweight to the state" even if intellectuals leading the opposition enjoy a certain amount of moral authority. Other analysts say the sudden announcement of extensive concessions smacks of panic, and that endemic corruption and high unemployment are beyond the government's capacity to fix. In addition, as the International Crisis Group notes, "as a result of events elsewhere in the region, a new awareness and audacity have materialized over the past several weeks in myriad forms of rebelliousness." Fear, if not gone, is no longer so pervasive.
'after the fact analysis ' : It seems not holding 103.50 line ( even by 6 ticks as it dropped to 103.44 ) , is a sign that NO big LONG order was standing as WALL at that 103.50 - this may show some clue for day close that the close is WEAK ( 104.50ish or below as opposed to ' strong close 104.90+' ) what do you think , is the slip into to 103.44 has any significance to forecast a WEAK close compared to say if the drop was only to 103.50 ? or you think it is arbitrary 6 more ticks drop I feel if our drop was limited to 103.50 , the close should have been above 104.50 ( big LONG order WALL theory as stated above )
I use the 5-min chart, but I reference the 60-min and daily charts to see if there's some indication of whether a trending move or trending day might be in order. Also, I will trade counter-trend off a valid signal (twin tops/bottoms or LH's/HL's) For example, yesterday in pre-market I saw that price found support to the exact tick of the 20-day moving average on the daily chart, so I had no interest in shorting around the pit open unless price broke below 102.94, in which case I'd short for a possible break of that support level @ 102.70. I was more inclined to find a long entry, which I did off the pit opening bar high. Today, in pre-market I saw a narrow range with solid support in the mid 104.20's and solid resistance in the 104.40's. The next S level in line from the 60-min chart to be tested on a break through the 6:10am ET bar low of 104.22 was 104.10, but an upside move would look for 104.78, a much better R:R, plus CL was above the daily 20 EMA. So that's how I use the longer term charts for a bigger picture view. When 104.22 was bid up during 8:10am bar, then buyers stepped in yet again during the 8:20am bar, that was enough confirmation for me and I bought a break of the 8:20 bar high, which also was a break of the 20-bar EMA on the 5-min chart. The speed of the breakout was quite unexpected considering how little had transpired in the hours leading into it, but I have no complaints! At that point, the trend is up and I plan to stick with the trend until some kind of reversal signal appears. I went long again @ 104.67 for a break of 104.78. The break was weak and the second visit to the weak new high failed, so I scalped 10 ticks and considered that twin top a reversal signal. I then watched the 1-min chart for an entry and shorted 104.62, break of the 9:03am bar low, and would stop-and-reverse @ 104.71. This was counter-trend and poor R:R, since the 20-bar EMA was only 10 ticks away, but sometimes CL can really reverse a move when the pit opens, which happened in this case. After the inventory report, price was falling and I assumed the news was bearish. I have an observational theory that if inventory news is bearish, price will break to new highs on the day, and vice versa if bullish. So there it was making lows and a 103.40 level coming into play from the 60-min chart. If this level found support, I figured there would be a strong "inventory" bounce, at least half way to the 20-bar EMA, which would provide 30-40 ticks profit, so I watched price action below .50 and pounced on a long off .44. The bounce was quick and once price hit the 20-EMA I locked in 30 ticks (my expected profit) and held to see if short entry would appear. There was nothing resembling a reversal signal so I held the position and trailed my stop below support levels all the way up, assuming that the earlier high would be tested, followed by 104.99 from the 60-min chart. Once price broke the high and hit 104.99 to the tick, I normally would've taken profits right then and there, but someone had placed significant size on the offer @ 105.00 (I think it was 283 lots) and 90% of the time size on the bid or offer must be tested, it's like a magnet, so I held it a bit longer to see if 105.08 from the 60-min chart would break with conviction. It was a weak break that ran out of gas not far from .08. I believe that's the longest time I've held a trending position, but the trend was so strong price never even sniffed at the 20-bar EMA following the fully confirmed reversal above 104.19 shortly after 11:00am ET. I assume the inventory report was bearish
Im not sure why you see 103.50 as significant (and the 6 ticks further). 103.60 was Mondays low. After inventories the momentum does cause some overshoot.
NoD, nice recap. Here is how I saw today's chart. All I do is trade trendline breaks that coincide with volume trendline breaks. I am still sim trading the CL, since it is such a huge mover compared to the ES. I'm getting my legs though slowly. I was feeling really good about the long at around 6:30, so I just sat frozen when we started to peel off. Also, I saw that huge lot order up near 105's, and I thought of NoD in that moment since we had just discussed that phenomenon last week. Lastly, are EOD charts OK to post in here? Let me know and if not I can remove it.
I've no idea why 103.50 would be considered significant, but for me, I had 103.40 noted as significant because once the low (104.10) of Tuesday's 12:00pm ET 60-min bar broke, the next 60-min bar low in line was Tuesday's 10:00am ET bar low of 103.40. My guess as to why support was established slightly above that level because anticipatory traders were likely jockeying orders to ensure a fill and still have a tight stop. Or maybe it's all totally random
C'mon, folks. You seem to forget the good ol' useless adage: It's the Trendline, Stupid! BTW, it's good to see a fellow trendline freak.
I am so in love I could marry them! What a great day it was when I could "see" trendlines. IMO they are the easiest way to get a feel for where an instrument is trying to go. The triangles on the ES have been stellar the past couple of days as well.
In hindsight, CL is perhaps the most technically oriented instrument. TL aligns so perfectly, you can't believe your eyes. Well, not so fast. What looks clean on the daily is absolutely a mess on the intraday. What looks perfect on the 30-minute isn't so perfect on the 5-minute AS PRICES ARE PRINTED in front of your eyes. Lastly, more often than not, you'll need more than one trendline to help you maintain your sanity. Needless to say, trendlines are useful but they can also drive you up the wall. However, I'm happy to find a like-minded soul. My motto is "Have trendline, will trade!" What's yours?