CL Redux

March 23, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
February new-home sales dive 16.9% to record low

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new single-family homes slumped 16.9% to a record-low seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 250,000, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The figure was far below the 290,000 that economists polled by MarketWatch had expected, though January's sales were revised higher to 301,000 from 284,000. Compared to February 2010, sales slumped 28%. Every region but the West saw record lows, and in the Northeast, sales dropped by 57% compared to January levels. The median sales price dived 13.9% to $202,100, the biggest one-month percentage fall on record. The less-volatile three-month average to February was 295,000, compared to 307,000 in January

 

in other news

<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ReSgYN-tNh0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Almost looks like a SNL bit, but who's laughing? Crazy.

 

Out at 77.

 

It will be interesting to see how much the inventories report affects this.

 

i'll be back later, i don't like inventory reports.

 

Futures Movers

March 23, 2011, 10:19 a.m. EDT
Crude futures top $105 a barrel
Traders monitor the ongoing conflict in oil-rich Libya

By V. Phani Kumar and Simon Kennedy, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures surpassed $105 a barrel Wednesday, extending the previous session’s strong gains, as fighting in Libya and increasingly violent antigovernment protests in the Middle East kept the risk of supply shocks on the front burner.

Crude for May delivery (NEW:CLK11) , the new front-month contract, rose 59 cents, or 0.6%, to $105.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Tuesday, May futures closed up 1.8%, or $1.88, at $104.97 a barrel in the regular trading session in New York, while the prior front-month April contract closed at $104 a barrel.
Libya air strikes expected to slow

The advance came as coalition forces continued their air attacks on troops loyal to Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi.

Days after the launch of airstrikes to enforce a no-fly zone as part of an international effort to protect Libyan civilians engaged in a struggle to oust Gadhafi, there was little evidence that the attacks had stopped the bloodshed or shifted the balance of power in favor of the rebels, according to a Washington Post report.

Gadhafi appeared on Libyan television for the first time in about a week to rally supporters and pledge victory.

Fears remained about the North African country’s oil production, despite assurances from Saudi Arabia that it would meet any supply shortfall resulting from Libya’s turmoil.

“Events this week in Libya make it increasingly unlikely that we’ll see a swift normalization of Libyan crude-oil production in the near term,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Soozhana Choi in a note to clients.

“Markets are increasingly bracing themselves for a lengthy disruption to Libyan crude-oil exports that may last potentially many months, if not more than a year,” Choi added.

Unrest in Yemen and Syria added to geopolitical worries. In Syria Wednesday, as many as six people were killed in antigovernment protests, the Associated Press reported, citing an activist. In Yemen, a producer of crude oil and liquified natural gas, the parliament approved a state of emergency after massive protests in the country.

And a large explosion was heard in Jerusalem Wednesday; witnesses said a bus exploded.

“We still believe that crude oil is somewhat overextended here, as despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, there has not been any meaningful disruption in supply other than from Libya,” wrote Edward Meir, commodities analyst at MF Global.

But, he added, “investor jitters are somewhat justified given the fast-paced geopolitical developments sweeping various countries.”

April natural-gas futures (NEW:NGJ11) rose 3 cents to $4.28 per million British thermal units.

Gasoline for April delivery (NEW:NGJ11) edged up less than a penny to $3.01 a gallon.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that gasoline stocks for the week ended March 18 tumbled 7.9 million barrels, much more than a drop of 2 million barrels expected by analysts surveyed by Platts.

At 10:30 a.m. Eastern, the Energy Information Administration will report its estimates of weekly petroleum inventories.

Analysts are expecting a rise in crude-oil stockpiles of 2 million barrels and a 1.5 million-barrel decline in distillate stocks.

 

Up 2.1 mi barrels.

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 18, 2011
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.3 million barrels per day during the week ending March 18, 167 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 84.1 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 306 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 8.5 million barrels per day, 393 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 695 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 192 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 352.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.3 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories remained unchanged and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are in the lower limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged about 19.3 million barrels per day, down by 0.5 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged about 9.1 million barrels per day, up by 1.2 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied has averaged nearly 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 3.6 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 4.1 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

 

Digesting, digesting, digesting.

So far it looks like the Middle East realities are trumping the inventory increase.

 

short 105.55 (4th time lucky!) (SL @ B/E)